**Abdul El-Sayed holds a consistent polling edge over Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open Senate race, with recent surveys from late September through early October showing leads of 1 to 7 points and averages around +2 to +3.5 among likely voters.** The Democratic nominee’s narrow August primary win over Haley Stevens consolidated support from progressives and organized labor, while Rogers, the 2024 nominee and Trump-endorsed Republican, has struggled to expand beyond his base in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024. A heated October 8 debate featured personal exchanges, and outside spending has exceeded $205 million, but El-Sayed has maintained advantages with younger voters, women, and college graduates. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic three weeks before the November 3 election, aligning with trader consensus favoring El-Sayed.