Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth head into the final weeks of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial contest for an open seat after Tim Walz withdrew earlier in the year. Recent polls show the race tightening, with Klobuchar’s lead shrinking from double digits to roughly 7 points in mid-September surveys as support shifted among independents and men toward the Republican House speaker. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, concentrating on narrow Democratic margins in the 5-15 point range while assigning low probability to a Republican victory. Early voting has begun, and regional shifts in southern and western Minnesota alongside undecided voters in the Twin Cities could still alter the final spread before November 3.