Stefany Shaheen holds a commanding position in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District race due to the seat’s established Democratic lean and her narrow primary win on September 8, 2026, in an open contest vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas. Forecasters rate the district Likely or Lean Democratic, consistent with its history of competitive but frequently Democratic outcomes. Shaheen’s local record on the Portsmouth City Council and family ties to retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen provide name recognition and institutional support. Anthony DiLorenzo, the Republican nominee backed by President Trump and a self-funding businessman, faces headwinds from the district’s partisan tilt and recent advertising highlighting his primary endorsement. Late-campaign developments such as shifts in turnout among swing voters, major policy announcements, or unexpected personal or financial disclosures could still narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.