Oregon's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with Suzanne Bonamici holding a substantial edge as the long-serving incumbent. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results and consistent race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus. Bonamici secured her party's nomination with over 86 percent in the May primary, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl prevailed in a lower-turnout contest. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or national conditions have kept probabilities stable ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to alter the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOR-01 House Election Winner
OR-01 House Election Winner
$27,452 Vol.
$27,452 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
95%
Barbara Kahl (R)
3%
$27,452 Vol.
$27,452 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
$10,566 Vol.
95%
Barbara Kahl (R)
$16,887 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with Suzanne Bonamici holding a substantial edge as the long-serving incumbent. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results and consistent race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus. Bonamici secured her party's nomination with over 86 percent in the May primary, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl prevailed in a lower-turnout contest. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or national conditions have kept probabilities stable ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$27,452End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with Suzanne Bonamici holding a substantial edge as the long-serving incumbent. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results and consistent race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus. Bonamici secured her party's nomination with over 86 percent in the May primary, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl prevailed in a lower-turnout contest. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or national conditions have kept probabilities stable ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,452End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat, with Suzanne Bonamici holding a substantial edge as the long-serving incumbent. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results and consistent race ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins trader consensus. Bonamici secured her party's nomination with over 86 percent in the May primary, while Republican nominee Barbara Kahl prevailed in a lower-turnout contest. Limited challenger fundraising and the absence of major recent shifts in voter sentiment or national conditions have kept probabilities stable ahead of the November general election. A significant late development, such as an unexpected scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to alter the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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