Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party at 77.5% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by anticipation surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the 2026 cycle. A recent poll shows voters split on the measure, but early voting underway since early March has heightened expectations among traders that Democrats, controlling the legislature, will enact a proposed map diminishing VA-06's R+12 partisan lean, potentially flipping it competitive. Incumbent Ben Cline seeks Republican nomination amid limited challengers, while Democrats feature a crowded primary with well-funded Beth Macy and recent entrant Army veteran Hugh Murray. Primaries are August 4, general election November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVA-06 House Election Winner
VA-06 House Election Winner
$31,856 Vol.
$31,856 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
78%
Republican Party
23%
$31,856 Vol.
$31,856 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,712 Vol.
78%
Republican Party
$12,144 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party at 77.5% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by anticipation surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the 2026 cycle. A recent poll shows voters split on the measure, but early voting underway since early March has heightened expectations among traders that Democrats, controlling the legislature, will enact a proposed map diminishing VA-06's R+12 partisan lean, potentially flipping it competitive. Incumbent Ben Cline seeks Republican nomination amid limited challengers, while Democrats feature a crowded primary with well-funded Beth Macy and recent entrant Army veteran Hugh Murray. Primaries are August 4, general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$31,856End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party at 77.5% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by anticipation surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the 2026 cycle. A recent poll shows voters split on the measure, but early voting underway since early March has heightened expectations among traders that Democrats, controlling the legislature, will enact a proposed map diminishing VA-06's R+12 partisan lean, potentially flipping it competitive. Incumbent Ben Cline seeks Republican nomination amid limited challengers, while Democrats feature a crowded primary with well-funded Beth Macy and recent entrant Army veteran Hugh Murray. Primaries are August 4, general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,856End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party at 77.5% in Virginia's 6th Congressional District House race, driven by anticipation surrounding the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the General Assembly to redraw congressional maps before the 2026 cycle. A recent poll shows voters split on the measure, but early voting underway since early March has heightened expectations among traders that Democrats, controlling the legislature, will enact a proposed map diminishing VA-06's R+12 partisan lean, potentially flipping it competitive. Incumbent Ben Cline seeks Republican nomination amid limited challengers, while Democrats feature a crowded primary with well-funded Beth Macy and recent entrant Army veteran Hugh Murray. Primaries are August 4, general election November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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