María Elvira Salazar holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a seat that leans Republican and where she won reelection by over 20 points in 2024. Traders assign her an 81.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Eliott Rodriguez, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup, Salazar’s primary performance of 81.3%, and her substantial fundraising edge. Rodriguez, a former television anchor who narrowly won his primary, has emphasized housing affordability and immigration issues while accepting multiple debate invitations that Salazar’s campaign has not confirmed. A recent endorsement from the South Florida Council of Firefighters further bolsters the incumbent’s profile among key local groups ahead of the contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-27 House Election Winner
FL-27 House Election Winner
$24,918 Vol.
$24,918 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
María Elvira Salazar (R)
81%
Eliott Rodriguez (D)
17%
$24,918 Vol.
$24,918 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
María Elvira Salazar (R)
$13,067 Vol.
81%
Eliott Rodriguez (D)
$11,851 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).María Elvira Salazar holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a seat that leans Republican and where she won reelection by over 20 points in 2024. Traders assign her an 81.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Eliott Rodriguez, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup, Salazar’s primary performance of 81.3%, and her substantial fundraising edge. Rodriguez, a former television anchor who narrowly won his primary, has emphasized housing affordability and immigration issues while accepting multiple debate invitations that Salazar’s campaign has not confirmed. A recent endorsement from the South Florida Council of Firefighters further bolsters the incumbent’s profile among key local groups ahead of the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$24,918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).María Elvira Salazar holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a seat that leans Republican and where she won reelection by over 20 points in 2024. Traders assign her an 81.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Eliott Rodriguez, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup, Salazar’s primary performance of 81.3%, and her substantial fundraising edge. Rodriguez, a former television anchor who narrowly won his primary, has emphasized housing affordability and immigration issues while accepting multiple debate invitations that Salazar’s campaign has not confirmed. A recent endorsement from the South Florida Council of Firefighters further bolsters the incumbent’s profile among key local groups ahead of the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...María Elvira Salazar holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a seat that leans Republican and where she won reelection by over 20 points in 2024. Traders assign her an 81.5% implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Eliott Rodriguez, reflecting the district’s partisan makeup, Salazar’s primary performance of 81.3%, and her substantial fundraising edge. Rodriguez, a former television anchor who narrowly won his primary, has emphasized housing affordability and immigration issues while accepting multiple debate invitations that Salazar’s campaign has not confirmed. A recent endorsement from the South Florida Council of Firefighters further bolsters the incumbent’s profile among key local groups ahead of the contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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