Incumbent Republican John Carter's dominant 60% win in the March 3 primary, avoiding a runoff against multiple challengers, has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for a GOP hold in Texas' 31st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voter index. The district reliably backed Republicans in recent cycles, including Carter's 64% victory in 2024, bolstered by his fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Justin Early, who narrowly won his primary at 58%. No post-primary polls exist, but historical margins and lack of competitive dynamics reflect low Democratic path-to-victory amid the November 3 general election timeline. Late scandals or nationalized midterms could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,986 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$3,494 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's dominant 60% win in the March 3 primary, avoiding a runoff against multiple challengers, has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for a GOP hold in Texas' 31st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voter index. The district reliably backed Republicans in recent cycles, including Carter's 64% victory in 2024, bolstered by his fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Justin Early, who narrowly won his primary at 58%. No post-primary polls exist, but historical margins and lack of competitive dynamics reflect low Democratic path-to-victory amid the November 3 general election timeline. Late scandals or nationalized midterms could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$8,480End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's dominant 60% win in the March 3 primary, avoiding a runoff against multiple challengers, has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for a GOP hold in Texas' 31st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voter index. The district reliably backed Republicans in recent cycles, including Carter's 64% victory in 2024, bolstered by his fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Justin Early, who narrowly won his primary at 58%. No post-primary polls exist, but historical margins and lack of competitive dynamics reflect low Democratic path-to-victory amid the November 3 general election timeline. Late scandals or nationalized midterms could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,480End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's dominant 60% win in the March 3 primary, avoiding a runoff against multiple challengers, has solidified trader consensus at 84.5% for a GOP hold in Texas' 31st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voter index. The district reliably backed Republicans in recent cycles, including Carter's 64% victory in 2024, bolstered by his fundraising edge over Democratic nominee Justin Early, who narrowly won his primary at 58%. No post-primary polls exist, but historical margins and lack of competitive dynamics reflect low Democratic path-to-victory amid the November 3 general election timeline. Late scandals or nationalized midterms could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions