Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote and earning endorsements from Crockett, the Texas AFL-CIO, and Justice Democrats. The open seat lies in a heavily Democratic area with a Cook PVI of D+25 that has consistently delivered 70-plus percent margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races. Haynes also holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Everett Jackson, who advanced from the May runoff. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp shift in turnout could still alter the outcome, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such changes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Frederick Haynes III (D)
96%
Everett Jackson (R)
2%
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Frederick Haynes III (D)
$5,583 Vol.
96%
Everett Jackson (R)
$42,726 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote and earning endorsements from Crockett, the Texas AFL-CIO, and Justice Democrats. The open seat lies in a heavily Democratic area with a Cook PVI of D+25 that has consistently delivered 70-plus percent margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races. Haynes also holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Everett Jackson, who advanced from the May runoff. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp shift in turnout could still alter the outcome, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such changes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$48,309End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote and earning endorsements from Crockett, the Texas AFL-CIO, and Justice Democrats. The open seat lies in a heavily Democratic area with a Cook PVI of D+25 that has consistently delivered 70-plus percent margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races. Haynes also holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Everett Jackson, who advanced from the May runoff. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp shift in turnout could still alter the outcome, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such changes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,309End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary with roughly 73 percent of the vote and earning endorsements from Crockett, the Texas AFL-CIO, and Justice Democrats. The open seat lies in a heavily Democratic area with a Cook PVI of D+25 that has consistently delivered 70-plus percent margins for Democratic candidates in recent statewide races. Haynes also holds a substantial fundraising advantage over Republican nominee Everett Jackson, who advanced from the May runoff. These structural factors underpin trader consensus on a Democratic hold ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a major scandal or sharp shift in turnout could still alter the outcome, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such changes improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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