Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in 2025 that shifted its partisan balance toward Republicans, creating an open seat after incumbent Democrat Julie Johnson moved to the new 33rd district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, who secured the nomination following the March primary and subsequent developments, benefits from this map and endorsements from party leaders. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces the altered electorate in the November general election. These structural changes and primary outcomes underpin trader consensus on the Republican advantage, though the race remains subject to campaign developments and turnout patterns through election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
25%
$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$26,790 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$1,475 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in 2025 that shifted its partisan balance toward Republicans, creating an open seat after incumbent Democrat Julie Johnson moved to the new 33rd district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, who secured the nomination following the March primary and subsequent developments, benefits from this map and endorsements from party leaders. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces the altered electorate in the November general election. These structural changes and primary outcomes underpin trader consensus on the Republican advantage, though the race remains subject to campaign developments and turnout patterns through election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$28,265End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in 2025 that shifted its partisan balance toward Republicans, creating an open seat after incumbent Democrat Julie Johnson moved to the new 33rd district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, who secured the nomination following the March primary and subsequent developments, benefits from this map and endorsements from party leaders. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces the altered electorate in the November general election. These structural changes and primary outcomes underpin trader consensus on the Republican advantage, though the race remains subject to campaign developments and turnout patterns through election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,265End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 32nd congressional district underwent significant redistricting in 2025 that shifted its partisan balance toward Republicans, creating an open seat after incumbent Democrat Julie Johnson moved to the new 33rd district. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough, who secured the nomination following the March primary and subsequent developments, benefits from this map and endorsements from party leaders. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios faces the altered electorate in the November general election. These structural changes and primary outcomes underpin trader consensus on the Republican advantage, though the race remains subject to campaign developments and turnout patterns through election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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