Incumbent Democratic Representative Sarah McBride, first elected in 2024 by a double-digit margin in Delaware’s at-large district, faces Republican nominee Joseph Arminio in the November 3 general election following September 15 primaries. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and recent voting patterns that have favored Democrats by wide margins across cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of competitive general-election polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a realistic path for Republicans. An unexpected national partisan shift, late scandal, or significant turnout surge could still alter the result before Election Day, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s structural fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDE-AL House Election Winner
DE-AL House Election Winner
$43,810 Vol.
$43,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$43,810 Vol.
$43,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,359 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$38,450 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sarah McBride, first elected in 2024 by a double-digit margin in Delaware’s at-large district, faces Republican nominee Joseph Arminio in the November 3 general election following September 15 primaries. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and recent voting patterns that have favored Democrats by wide margins across cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of competitive general-election polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a realistic path for Republicans. An unexpected national partisan shift, late scandal, or significant turnout surge could still alter the result before Election Day, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$43,810End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sarah McBride, first elected in 2024 by a double-digit margin in Delaware’s at-large district, faces Republican nominee Joseph Arminio in the November 3 general election following September 15 primaries. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and recent voting patterns that have favored Democrats by wide margins across cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of competitive general-election polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a realistic path for Republicans. An unexpected national partisan shift, late scandal, or significant turnout surge could still alter the result before Election Day, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,810End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Sarah McBride, first elected in 2024 by a double-digit margin in Delaware’s at-large district, faces Republican nominee Joseph Arminio in the November 3 general election following September 15 primaries. Nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and recent voting patterns that have favored Democrats by wide margins across cycles. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of competitive general-election polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a realistic path for Republicans. An unexpected national partisan shift, late scandal, or significant turnout surge could still alter the result before Election Day, though such developments remain low-probability given the district’s structural fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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