Delaware’s at-large House seat remains structurally Democratic, with consistent voter registration advantages and recent election margins supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride, who won the seat in 2024 by nearly 16 points, advanced unopposed through the September 15 Democratic primary, while Joseph Arminio secured the Republican nomination in a three-way contest. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, significant health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDE-AL House Election Winner
DE-AL House Election Winner
$43,936 Vol.
$43,936 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$43,936 Vol.
$43,936 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,460 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$38,476 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Delaware’s at-large House seat remains structurally Democratic, with consistent voter registration advantages and recent election margins supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride, who won the seat in 2024 by nearly 16 points, advanced unopposed through the September 15 Democratic primary, while Joseph Arminio secured the Republican nomination in a three-way contest. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, significant health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$43,936End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Delaware’s at-large House seat remains structurally Democratic, with consistent voter registration advantages and recent election margins supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride, who won the seat in 2024 by nearly 16 points, advanced unopposed through the September 15 Democratic primary, while Joseph Arminio secured the Republican nomination in a three-way contest. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, significant health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,936End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Delaware’s at-large House seat remains structurally Democratic, with consistent voter registration advantages and recent election margins supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 95.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sarah McBride, who won the seat in 2024 by nearly 16 points, advanced unopposed through the September 15 Democratic primary, while Joseph Arminio secured the Republican nomination in a three-way contest. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, significant health development, or unusually strong national Republican performance could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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