Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. LaHood secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $3.6 million raised and significant cash reserves compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's more modest totals. The rural northern Illinois district's partisan voting index and LaHood's established name recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current market pricing. A late national political shift, major unforeseen scandal, or health-related development could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$44,429 Vol.
$44,429 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
95%
Paul Nolley (D)
6%
$44,429 Vol.
$44,429 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$18,797 Vol.
95%
Paul Nolley (D)
$25,632 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. LaHood secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $3.6 million raised and significant cash reserves compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's more modest totals. The rural northern Illinois district's partisan voting index and LaHood's established name recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current market pricing. A late national political shift, major unforeseen scandal, or health-related development could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$44,429End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. LaHood secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $3.6 million raised and significant cash reserves compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's more modest totals. The rural northern Illinois district's partisan voting index and LaHood's established name recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current market pricing. A late national political shift, major unforeseen scandal, or health-related development could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,429End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. LaHood secured his party's nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and benefits from substantial fundraising advantages, with over $3.6 million raised and significant cash reserves compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's more modest totals. The rural northern Illinois district's partisan voting index and LaHood's established name recognition further reinforce trader consensus reflected in the current market pricing. A late national political shift, major unforeseen scandal, or health-related development could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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