Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood advanced unopposed from the March 17, 2026, Illinois 16th Congressional District Republican primary, solidifying his path to the November general election in a district rated Safe Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his nomination without opposition, but traders price a Republican Party victory at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's consistent GOP dominance—historically R+13 lean—and LaHood's prior unchallenged races, including 2024. Absent major scandals, fundraising surges, or national midterm wave effects, the matchup favors the incumbent's reelection bid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,838 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$3,539 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood advanced unopposed from the March 17, 2026, Illinois 16th Congressional District Republican primary, solidifying his path to the November general election in a district rated Safe Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his nomination without opposition, but traders price a Republican Party victory at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's consistent GOP dominance—historically R+13 lean—and LaHood's prior unchallenged races, including 2024. Absent major scandals, fundraising surges, or national midterm wave effects, the matchup favors the incumbent's reelection bid.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$5,376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood advanced unopposed from the March 17, 2026, Illinois 16th Congressional District Republican primary, solidifying his path to the November general election in a district rated Safe Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his nomination without opposition, but traders price a Republican Party victory at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's consistent GOP dominance—historically R+13 lean—and LaHood's prior unchallenged races, including 2024. Absent major scandals, fundraising surges, or national midterm wave effects, the matchup favors the incumbent's reelection bid.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,376End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood advanced unopposed from the March 17, 2026, Illinois 16th Congressional District Republican primary, solidifying his path to the November general election in a district rated Safe Republican by the Cook Political Report. Democrat Paul Nolley similarly secured his nomination without opposition, but traders price a Republican Party victory at 87.5% implied probability, driven by the district's consistent GOP dominance—historically R+13 lean—and LaHood's prior unchallenged races, including 2024. Absent major scandals, fundraising surges, or national midterm wave effects, the matchup favors the incumbent's reelection bid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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