Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's strong position in solidly Republican Illinois's 16th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 85.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 and his unopposed March primary win. LaHood's fundraising dominance—bolstered by recent FEC reports—contrasts with Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's grassroots but limited resources as a political newcomer from Rockford. With primaries concluding without surprises and no competitive polling emerging since late March, the market prices in high barriers for Democrats, including incumbency advantage and weak turnout potential in this central Illinois battleground absent major shifts before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,509 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$4,770 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's strong position in solidly Republican Illinois's 16th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 85.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 and his unopposed March primary win. LaHood's fundraising dominance—bolstered by recent FEC reports—contrasts with Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's grassroots but limited resources as a political newcomer from Rockford. With primaries concluding without surprises and no competitive polling emerging since late March, the market prices in high barriers for Democrats, including incumbency advantage and weak turnout potential in this central Illinois battleground absent major shifts before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$7,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's strong position in solidly Republican Illinois's 16th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 85.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 and his unopposed March primary win. LaHood's fundraising dominance—bolstered by recent FEC reports—contrasts with Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's grassroots but limited resources as a political newcomer from Rockford. With primaries concluding without surprises and no competitive polling emerging since late March, the market prices in high barriers for Democrats, including incumbency advantage and weak turnout potential in this central Illinois battleground absent major shifts before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,279End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Darin LaHood's strong position in solidly Republican Illinois's 16th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 85.5% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's historical Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 and his unopposed March primary win. LaHood's fundraising dominance—bolstered by recent FEC reports—contrasts with Democratic nominee Paul Nolley's grassroots but limited resources as a political newcomer from Rockford. With primaries concluding without surprises and no competitive polling emerging since late March, the market prices in high barriers for Democrats, including incumbency advantage and weak turnout potential in this central Illinois battleground absent major shifts before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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