Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing in a crowded field with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler and Governor Kathy Hochul plus substantial outside support. The Manhattan-based district remains one of the most Democratic in the country, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one and a history of lopsided general-election margins. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources. Current trader consensus pricing reflects these fundamentals. A late scandal, major health event, or unprecedented turnout shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline and Lasher’s established local profile make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,941 Vol.
$32,941 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
2%
$32,941 Vol.
$32,941 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,306 Vol.
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing in a crowded field with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler and Governor Kathy Hochul plus substantial outside support. The Manhattan-based district remains one of the most Democratic in the country, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one and a history of lopsided general-election margins. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources. Current trader consensus pricing reflects these fundamentals. A late scandal, major health event, or unprecedented turnout shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline and Lasher’s established local profile make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,941End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing in a crowded field with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler and Governor Kathy Hochul plus substantial outside support. The Manhattan-based district remains one of the most Democratic in the country, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one and a history of lopsided general-election margins. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources. Current trader consensus pricing reflects these fundamentals. A late scandal, major health event, or unprecedented turnout shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline and Lasher’s established local profile make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,941End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing in a crowded field with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler and Governor Kathy Hochul plus substantial outside support. The Manhattan-based district remains one of the most Democratic in the country, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than six to one and a history of lopsided general-election margins. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources. Current trader consensus pricing reflects these fundamentals. A late scandal, major health event, or unprecedented turnout shift could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline and Lasher’s established local profile make such reversals unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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