Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating a crowded primary field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, bolstered by endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and major outside spending including a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. New York’s 12th District, covering central Manhattan, remains a solidly Democratic seat with a large registration advantage and a history of lopsided general election margins. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed but maintains limited campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and Lasher’s established local profile. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,941 Vol.
$32,941 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
2%
$32,941 Vol.
$32,941 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,306 Vol.
98%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating a crowded primary field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, bolstered by endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and major outside spending including a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. New York’s 12th District, covering central Manhattan, remains a solidly Democratic seat with a large registration advantage and a history of lopsided general election margins. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed but maintains limited campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and Lasher’s established local profile. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,941End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating a crowded primary field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, bolstered by endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and major outside spending including a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. New York’s 12th District, covering central Manhattan, remains a solidly Democratic seat with a large registration advantage and a history of lopsided general election margins. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed but maintains limited campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and Lasher’s established local profile. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,941End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating a crowded primary field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg, bolstered by endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and major outside spending including a super PAC backed by former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. New York’s 12th District, covering central Manhattan, remains a solidly Democratic seat with a large registration advantage and a history of lopsided general election margins. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle advanced unopposed but maintains limited campaign resources and faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democrat by forecasters. Trader consensus reflects these partisan fundamentals and Lasher’s established local profile. Late developments such as scandals, health issues, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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