The open seat in Tennessee's 6th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican John Rose's decision to run for governor, combined with May 2026 mid-decade redistricting that strengthened the district's Republican tilt to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 or higher, has driven traders to assign a commanding 92.5 percent implied probability to the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and a filing deadline extension that allowed multiple experienced Republicans, including state Representative Johnny Garrett and former Representative Van Hilleary, to enter the August 6 primary. A Democratic general election candidate faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have historically prevailed by wide margins. Late developments such as an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a divisive Republican primary outcome, or turnout shifts among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for such changes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-06 House Election Winner
TN-06 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,992 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$867 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Tennessee's 6th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican John Rose's decision to run for governor, combined with May 2026 mid-decade redistricting that strengthened the district's Republican tilt to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 or higher, has driven traders to assign a commanding 92.5 percent implied probability to the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and a filing deadline extension that allowed multiple experienced Republicans, including state Representative Johnny Garrett and former Representative Van Hilleary, to enter the August 6 primary. A Democratic general election candidate faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have historically prevailed by wide margins. Late developments such as an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a divisive Republican primary outcome, or turnout shifts among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for such changes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$5,859End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Tennessee's 6th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican John Rose's decision to run for governor, combined with May 2026 mid-decade redistricting that strengthened the district's Republican tilt to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 or higher, has driven traders to assign a commanding 92.5 percent implied probability to the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and a filing deadline extension that allowed multiple experienced Republicans, including state Representative Johnny Garrett and former Representative Van Hilleary, to enter the August 6 primary. A Democratic general election candidate faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have historically prevailed by wide margins. Late developments such as an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a divisive Republican primary outcome, or turnout shifts among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for such changes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,859End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Tennessee's 6th Congressional District, created by incumbent Republican John Rose's decision to run for governor, combined with May 2026 mid-decade redistricting that strengthened the district's Republican tilt to a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13 or higher, has driven traders to assign a commanding 92.5 percent implied probability to the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Republican or Safe Republican, reflecting consistent GOP performance in recent cycles and a filing deadline extension that allowed multiple experienced Republicans, including state Representative Johnny Garrett and former Representative Van Hilleary, to enter the August 6 primary. A Democratic general election candidate faces structural barriers in a district where Republicans have historically prevailed by wide margins. Late developments such as an unusually strong national Democratic wave, a divisive Republican primary outcome, or turnout shifts among key voting blocs could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited pathways for such changes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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