Tennessee's 6th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+35 partisan lean and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus favoring state Representative Johnny Garrett. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's retirement to pursue the governorship, drew a competitive August 2026 Republican primary where Garrett prevailed with 43.6 percent against former Congressman Van Hilleary and others, securing endorsements that reinforced his position as the nominee. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican district ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district limit such scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-06 House Election Winner
TN-06 House Election Winner
$17,452 Vol.
$17,452 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Johnny Garrett (R)
94%
Mike Croley (D)
5%
$17,452 Vol.
$17,452 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Johnny Garrett (R)
$9,020 Vol.
94%
Mike Croley (D)
$8,431 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+35 partisan lean and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus favoring state Representative Johnny Garrett. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's retirement to pursue the governorship, drew a competitive August 2026 Republican primary where Garrett prevailed with 43.6 percent against former Congressman Van Hilleary and others, securing endorsements that reinforced his position as the nominee. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican district ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$17,452End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+35 partisan lean and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus favoring state Representative Johnny Garrett. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's retirement to pursue the governorship, drew a competitive August 2026 Republican primary where Garrett prevailed with 43.6 percent against former Congressman Van Hilleary and others, securing endorsements that reinforced his position as the nominee. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican district ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,452End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 6th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+35 partisan lean and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus favoring state Representative Johnny Garrett. The open seat, created by incumbent John Rose's retirement to pursue the governorship, drew a competitive August 2026 Republican primary where Garrett prevailed with 43.6 percent against former Congressman Van Hilleary and others, securing endorsements that reinforced his position as the nominee. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary but faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican district ahead of the November 3 general election. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Late developments such as national political shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district limit such scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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