Open seat in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District after Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has traders favoring a Republican winner at 68.5% implied probability, aligning with the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and Solid Republican rating, where prior GOP margins exceeded 15 points. Crowded June 9 primaries loom—with 11 Republicans, including fundraiser Sam McCown and straw poll leader Mark Smith (34% at April GOP forum), facing potential runoff June 23—and eight Democrats led by retired Rear Adm. Nancy Lacore's $1 million fundraising. Democrats' DCCC targeting adds competitiveness, but yesterday's state House redistricting debate signals uncertainty, as GOP lawmakers advance map changes that could delay primaries without shifting SC-01's core Republican lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-01 House Election Winner
SC-01 House Election Winner
$35,478 Vol.
$35,478 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
29%
$35,478 Vol.
$35,478 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,422 Vol.
69%
Democratic Party
$29,055 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Open seat in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District after Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has traders favoring a Republican winner at 68.5% implied probability, aligning with the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and Solid Republican rating, where prior GOP margins exceeded 15 points. Crowded June 9 primaries loom—with 11 Republicans, including fundraiser Sam McCown and straw poll leader Mark Smith (34% at April GOP forum), facing potential runoff June 23—and eight Democrats led by retired Rear Adm. Nancy Lacore's $1 million fundraising. Democrats' DCCC targeting adds competitiveness, but yesterday's state House redistricting debate signals uncertainty, as GOP lawmakers advance map changes that could delay primaries without shifting SC-01's core Republican lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$35,478End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Open seat in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District after Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has traders favoring a Republican winner at 68.5% implied probability, aligning with the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and Solid Republican rating, where prior GOP margins exceeded 15 points. Crowded June 9 primaries loom—with 11 Republicans, including fundraiser Sam McCown and straw poll leader Mark Smith (34% at April GOP forum), facing potential runoff June 23—and eight Democrats led by retired Rear Adm. Nancy Lacore's $1 million fundraising. Democrats' DCCC targeting adds competitiveness, but yesterday's state House redistricting debate signals uncertainty, as GOP lawmakers advance map changes that could delay primaries without shifting SC-01's core Republican lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,478End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Open seat in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District after Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has traders favoring a Republican winner at 68.5% implied probability, aligning with the district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 and Solid Republican rating, where prior GOP margins exceeded 15 points. Crowded June 9 primaries loom—with 11 Republicans, including fundraiser Sam McCown and straw poll leader Mark Smith (34% at April GOP forum), facing potential runoff June 23—and eight Democrats led by retired Rear Adm. Nancy Lacore's $1 million fundraising. Democrats' DCCC targeting adds competitiveness, but yesterday's state House redistricting debate signals uncertainty, as GOP lawmakers advance map changes that could delay primaries without shifting SC-01's core Republican lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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