The strong Republican lean of Tennessee's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee. Recent redistricting further diluted Democratic-leaning areas, while the August 6 Republican primary produced a new nominee in former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, who defeated incumbent Andy Ogles with establishment support from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia's mayor, secured his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments such as scandals or national shifts reinforce the market's assessment of limited Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$49,712 Vol.
$49,712 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
2%
$49,712 Vol.
$49,712 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$24,329 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$25,383 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Tennessee's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee. Recent redistricting further diluted Democratic-leaning areas, while the August 6 Republican primary produced a new nominee in former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, who defeated incumbent Andy Ogles with establishment support from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia's mayor, secured his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments such as scandals or national shifts reinforce the market's assessment of limited Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$49,712End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Tennessee's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee. Recent redistricting further diluted Democratic-leaning areas, while the August 6 Republican primary produced a new nominee in former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, who defeated incumbent Andy Ogles with establishment support from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia's mayor, secured his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments such as scandals or national shifts reinforce the market's assessment of limited Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,712End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Tennessee's 5th congressional district, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index, anchors trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican nominee. Recent redistricting further diluted Democratic-leaning areas, while the August 6 Republican primary produced a new nominee in former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, who defeated incumbent Andy Ogles with establishment support from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder, Columbia's mayor, secured his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. Limited polling and the absence of major late-breaking developments such as scandals or national shifts reinforce the market's assessment of limited Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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