**Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III leads trader consensus for Alaska’s at-large House seat due to the state’s Republican lean, his 44.6% primary finish, and polling that shows him ahead of independent Bill Hill by double digits in early rounds.** Hill, a commercial fisherman and former school superintendent, advanced with 32.5% and gained national Democratic backing through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program after Democrat Matt Schultz withdrew and endorsed him. However, this has not closed the gap in available surveys. The remaining general-election candidates—Democrat Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott—advanced only after multiple withdrawals and register minimal support. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and the November 3 resolution window further reinforce the current implied probabilities among traders.