Ryan Elijah (R) holds a commanding 98.6% implied probability in the FL-07 House election market because early returns from the November 3, 2026 general election show him leading Democrat Bale Dalton by roughly 1,900 votes, or 0.6%, in this open Republican-leaning district. Elijah secured the GOP nomination by defeating scandal-plagued incumbent Cory Mills in the August primary and benefits from the seat’s historical voting patterns and local endorsements. Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff, outraised his opponent but trails in a district that has favored Republicans in recent cycles. A narrow margin leaves room for an automatic machine recount if outstanding mail ballots in Seminole County narrow the gap below 0.5%, though traders assess the likelihood of an outcome reversal as low given current vote totals and the Libertarian candidate’s share.