Florida's 8th Congressional District, with its R+11 partisan lean, favors incumbent Republican Mike Haridopolos, who captured 62% in his 2024 general election victory and faces no Republican primary opposition ahead of the August 18 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 79.5% implied probability to retain the seat, reflecting Haridopolos' $844,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, prior endorsement from President Trump, and Solid/Safe Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrats, with Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock in their primary, trail at 14.5%, consistent with the district's history of GOP margins exceeding 60%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, though the June 12 filing deadline could introduce new challengers amid 2026 midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-08 House Election Winner
FL-08 House Election Winner
$10,111 Vol.
$10,111 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
16%
$10,111 Vol.
$10,111 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,965 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$5,147 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 8th Congressional District, with its R+11 partisan lean, favors incumbent Republican Mike Haridopolos, who captured 62% in his 2024 general election victory and faces no Republican primary opposition ahead of the August 18 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 79.5% implied probability to retain the seat, reflecting Haridopolos' $844,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, prior endorsement from President Trump, and Solid/Safe Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrats, with Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock in their primary, trail at 14.5%, consistent with the district's history of GOP margins exceeding 60%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, though the June 12 filing deadline could introduce new challengers amid 2026 midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$10,111End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 8th Congressional District, with its R+11 partisan lean, favors incumbent Republican Mike Haridopolos, who captured 62% in his 2024 general election victory and faces no Republican primary opposition ahead of the August 18 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 79.5% implied probability to retain the seat, reflecting Haridopolos' $844,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, prior endorsement from President Trump, and Solid/Safe Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrats, with Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock in their primary, trail at 14.5%, consistent with the district's history of GOP margins exceeding 60%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, though the June 12 filing deadline could introduce new challengers amid 2026 midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,111End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 8th Congressional District, with its R+11 partisan lean, favors incumbent Republican Mike Haridopolos, who captured 62% in his 2024 general election victory and faces no Republican primary opposition ahead of the August 18 primaries. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 79.5% implied probability to retain the seat, reflecting Haridopolos' $844,000 cash-on-hand as of late March, prior endorsement from President Trump, and Solid/Safe Republican ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrats, with Paul Dellinger and Colby Shock in their primary, trail at 14.5%, consistent with the district's history of GOP margins exceeding 60%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, though the June 12 filing deadline could introduce new challengers amid 2026 midterm dynamics under a Republican presidency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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