Brian Poindexter leads the OH-07 House race at 91% implied probability because domestic abuse allegations against incumbent Max Miller, combined with heavy Democratic advertising and strong union-backed fundraising by the challenger, shifted the contest into a toss-up despite the district’s Republican lean after redistricting. Polls in the final weeks showed Poindexter ahead or tied, reflecting voter reaction to the personal legal disputes and a competitive midterm environment. Miller’s late endorsement from President Trump and emphasis on border security and tax policy provided limited counter-momentum. The market could still move if outstanding vote counts or provisional ballots reverse the apparent trend, or if legal challenges arise from the close margin expected in this suburban Cleveland and Medina County district.