Incumbent Republican Mario Díaz-Balart, dean of Florida's congressional delegation and top GOP member on the Appropriations Committee, drives trader consensus at 84% for a Republican win in FL-26, an R+16 district where he captured 70.9% in 2024. Running unopposed in the August 18 primary, he holds a commanding fundraising edge with $2.2 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders Yurina Gil and Nicole Locklin's combined under $100,000. Recent Q1 filings and his late April confirmation to seek reelection post-redistricting solidify the outlook, with Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rating it Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-26 House Election Winner
FL-26 House Election Winner
$28,565 Vol.
$28,565 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
15%
$28,565 Vol.
$28,565 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$13,096 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$15,469 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mario Díaz-Balart, dean of Florida's congressional delegation and top GOP member on the Appropriations Committee, drives trader consensus at 84% for a Republican win in FL-26, an R+16 district where he captured 70.9% in 2024. Running unopposed in the August 18 primary, he holds a commanding fundraising edge with $2.2 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders Yurina Gil and Nicole Locklin's combined under $100,000. Recent Q1 filings and his late April confirmation to seek reelection post-redistricting solidify the outlook, with Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rating it Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$28,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mario Díaz-Balart, dean of Florida's congressional delegation and top GOP member on the Appropriations Committee, drives trader consensus at 84% for a Republican win in FL-26, an R+16 district where he captured 70.9% in 2024. Running unopposed in the August 18 primary, he holds a commanding fundraising edge with $2.2 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders Yurina Gil and Nicole Locklin's combined under $100,000. Recent Q1 filings and his late April confirmation to seek reelection post-redistricting solidify the outlook, with Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rating it Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mario Díaz-Balart, dean of Florida's congressional delegation and top GOP member on the Appropriations Committee, drives trader consensus at 84% for a Republican win in FL-26, an R+16 district where he captured 70.9% in 2024. Running unopposed in the August 18 primary, he holds a commanding fundraising edge with $2.2 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Democratic primary contenders Yurina Gil and Nicole Locklin's combined under $100,000. Recent Q1 filings and his late April confirmation to seek reelection post-redistricting solidify the outlook, with Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rating it Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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