Denise Powell's narrow victory in the May 12 Democratic primary against State Sen. John Cavanaugh has unified Democrats as the nominee to challenge Republican Brinker Harding, the uncontested GOP primary winner and Omaha City Council vice president, in Nebraska's open 2nd Congressional District seat vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon last year. Traders price a Democratic hold at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's Omaha urban core and suburban mix that has favored Democrats in recent cycles, Cook Political Report's assessment of it as a prime flip opportunity for Democrats, and early post-primary polling showing Powell leading Harding. With the November 3 general election months away, national midterm dynamics and turnout in battleground areas could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNE-02 House Election Winner
NE-02 House Election Winner
$27,520 Vol.
$27,520 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
80%
Republican Party
18%
$27,520 Vol.
$27,520 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,289 Vol.
80%
Republican Party
$231 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Denise Powell's narrow victory in the May 12 Democratic primary against State Sen. John Cavanaugh has unified Democrats as the nominee to challenge Republican Brinker Harding, the uncontested GOP primary winner and Omaha City Council vice president, in Nebraska's open 2nd Congressional District seat vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon last year. Traders price a Democratic hold at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's Omaha urban core and suburban mix that has favored Democrats in recent cycles, Cook Political Report's assessment of it as a prime flip opportunity for Democrats, and early post-primary polling showing Powell leading Harding. With the November 3 general election months away, national midterm dynamics and turnout in battleground areas could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$27,520End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Denise Powell's narrow victory in the May 12 Democratic primary against State Sen. John Cavanaugh has unified Democrats as the nominee to challenge Republican Brinker Harding, the uncontested GOP primary winner and Omaha City Council vice president, in Nebraska's open 2nd Congressional District seat vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon last year. Traders price a Democratic hold at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's Omaha urban core and suburban mix that has favored Democrats in recent cycles, Cook Political Report's assessment of it as a prime flip opportunity for Democrats, and early post-primary polling showing Powell leading Harding. With the November 3 general election months away, national midterm dynamics and turnout in battleground areas could shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,520End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Denise Powell's narrow victory in the May 12 Democratic primary against State Sen. John Cavanaugh has unified Democrats as the nominee to challenge Republican Brinker Harding, the uncontested GOP primary winner and Omaha City Council vice president, in Nebraska's open 2nd Congressional District seat vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon last year. Traders price a Democratic hold at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's Omaha urban core and suburban mix that has favored Democrats in recent cycles, Cook Political Report's assessment of it as a prime flip opportunity for Democrats, and early post-primary polling showing Powell leading Harding. With the November 3 general election months away, national midterm dynamics and turnout in battleground areas could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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