Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 89% for the 2026 midterm elections occurring as scheduled, driven by the U.S. Constitution's Article I, Section 4 mandate requiring congressional elections every two years on state-set dates—typically November 3, 2026—absent extraordinary congressional action, which has never materialized in U.S. history despite crises like world wars, civil unrest, or the COVID-19 pandemic. No official statements, legislative proposals, or executive orders in the past 30 days from the incoming Trump administration or Congress suggest postponement, with recent focus on cabinet nominations, debt ceiling negotiations, and transition planning reinforcing routine electoral continuity. While low-probability scenarios like government shutdowns or national emergencies could prompt debate, procedural hurdles and historical precedent maintain high implied probability, pending any late-breaking developments before the lame-duck session.