Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District race due to the seat’s D+6 Partisan Voter Index, her strong primary performance securing roughly 75 percent of the Democratic vote, and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Democratic hold from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The November general election features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who advanced with about 87 percent in her primary, alongside Pacific Green candidate Justin Filip. Recent campaign focus on artificial intelligence and data center development has generated attack ads from DeSpain but has not altered the district’s underlying voter registration and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOR-04 House Election Winner
OR-04 House Election Winner
$22,629 Vol.
$22,629 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
6%
$22,629 Vol.
$22,629 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Val Hoyle (D)
$15,508 Vol.
94%
Monique DeSpain (R)
$7,121 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District race due to the seat’s D+6 Partisan Voter Index, her strong primary performance securing roughly 75 percent of the Democratic vote, and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Democratic hold from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The November general election features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who advanced with about 87 percent in her primary, alongside Pacific Green candidate Justin Filip. Recent campaign focus on artificial intelligence and data center development has generated attack ads from DeSpain but has not altered the district’s underlying voter registration and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$22,629End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District race due to the seat’s D+6 Partisan Voter Index, her strong primary performance securing roughly 75 percent of the Democratic vote, and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Democratic hold from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The November general election features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who advanced with about 87 percent in her primary, alongside Pacific Green candidate Justin Filip. Recent campaign focus on artificial intelligence and data center development has generated attack ads from DeSpain but has not altered the district’s underlying voter registration and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,629End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Val Hoyle holds a commanding position in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District race due to the seat’s D+6 Partisan Voter Index, her strong primary performance securing roughly 75 percent of the Democratic vote, and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Democratic hold from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The November general election features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who advanced with about 87 percent in her primary, alongside Pacific Green candidate Justin Filip. Recent campaign focus on artificial intelligence and data center development has generated attack ads from DeSpain but has not altered the district’s underlying voter registration and historical turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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