Incumbent Republican David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in the TN-08 House race, reflecting the district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican or Safe Republican ratings from forecasters. Kustoff advanced unopposed through the August 2026 Republican primary and maintains strong positioning through recent legislative activity, including a bill signed into law in early October 2026 on Social Security identity theft protections. Democrat Heidi Kuhn won her primary but faces a structurally challenging environment in a district covering rural and suburban West Tennessee counties. Multiple independent candidates on the November 3 ballot add fragmentation. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Kustoff accounts for these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health events, or an unforeseen national shift could still alter the outcome before election day.