Republican Steve Toth's decisive victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary—securing 57% of the vote—has solidified trader consensus favoring a GOP hold on Texas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voting index. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, where prior winners like Crenshaw took 65% in generals, and Toth's conservative profile aligns with base voters. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed but faces steep barriers despite stronger fundraising ($2.56 million raised vs. Toth's $698,000 as of late March). No recent polls exist, but ratings and historical precedents underpin the 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTX-02 House Election Winner
TX-02 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
12%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,222 ปริมาณ
85%
Democratic Party
$4,353 ปริมาณ
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Steve Toth's decisive victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary—securing 57% of the vote—has solidified trader consensus favoring a GOP hold on Texas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voting index. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, where prior winners like Crenshaw took 65% in generals, and Toth's conservative profile aligns with base voters. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed but faces steep barriers despite stronger fundraising ($2.56 million raised vs. Toth's $698,000 as of late March). No recent polls exist, but ratings and historical precedents underpin the 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,575วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Steve Toth's decisive victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary—securing 57% of the vote—has solidified trader consensus favoring a GOP hold on Texas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voting index. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, where prior winners like Crenshaw took 65% in generals, and Toth's conservative profile aligns with base voters. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed but faces steep barriers despite stronger fundraising ($2.56 million raised vs. Toth's $698,000 as of late March). No recent polls exist, but ratings and historical precedents underpin the 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,575วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Steve Toth's decisive victory over incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary—securing 57% of the vote—has solidified trader consensus favoring a GOP hold on Texas's 2nd Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+11 partisan voting index. The Houston-area battleground leans heavily Republican, where prior winners like Crenshaw took 65% in generals, and Toth's conservative profile aligns with base voters. Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed but faces steep barriers despite stronger fundraising ($2.56 million raised vs. Toth's $698,000 as of late March). No recent polls exist, but ratings and historical precedents underpin the 84.5% implied probability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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