Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's dominant fundraising—$828,000 raised and $2.6 million cash on hand—far outpaces his five Republican primary challengers combined, bolstering trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District general election on November 3. The district's new D+3 Cook PVI post-2025 redistricting, where Kamala Harris won 50.5% in 2024, provides Tran a cushion after his narrow 2024 flip. A crowded GOP top-two primary field on June 2—including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and Councilwoman Amy Phan West—fragments opposition ahead of early voting starting May 4. Ratings like Cook's Lean Democratic reflect incumbency edge despite NRCC targeting, with low-volume trading underscoring stable conviction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,642 ปริมาณ
88%
Republican Party
$5,843 ปริมาณ
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's dominant fundraising—$828,000 raised and $2.6 million cash on hand—far outpaces his five Republican primary challengers combined, bolstering trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District general election on November 3. The district's new D+3 Cook PVI post-2025 redistricting, where Kamala Harris won 50.5% in 2024, provides Tran a cushion after his narrow 2024 flip. A crowded GOP top-two primary field on June 2—including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and Councilwoman Amy Phan West—fragments opposition ahead of early voting starting May 4. Ratings like Cook's Lean Democratic reflect incumbency edge despite NRCC targeting, with low-volume trading underscoring stable conviction.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,485วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's dominant fundraising—$828,000 raised and $2.6 million cash on hand—far outpaces his five Republican primary challengers combined, bolstering trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District general election on November 3. The district's new D+3 Cook PVI post-2025 redistricting, where Kamala Harris won 50.5% in 2024, provides Tran a cushion after his narrow 2024 flip. A crowded GOP top-two primary field on June 2—including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and Councilwoman Amy Phan West—fragments opposition ahead of early voting starting May 4. Ratings like Cook's Lean Democratic reflect incumbency edge despite NRCC targeting, with low-volume trading underscoring stable conviction.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,485วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran's dominant fundraising—$828,000 raised and $2.6 million cash on hand—far outpaces his five Republican primary challengers combined, bolstering trader consensus at 87.5% for a Democratic hold in California's 45th Congressional District general election on November 3. The district's new D+3 Cook PVI post-2025 redistricting, where Kamala Harris won 50.5% in 2024, provides Tran a cushion after his narrow 2024 flip. A crowded GOP top-two primary field on June 2—including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen, ex-Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo, and Councilwoman Amy Phan West—fragments opposition ahead of early voting starting May 4. Ratings like Cook's Lean Democratic reflect incumbency edge despite NRCC targeting, with low-volume trading underscoring stable conviction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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