Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party to win California's 4th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index following Proposition 50 redistricting in November 2025, which bolstered its Democratic lean (Kamala Harris won 55.8% in 2024). Recent mid-April FEC filings show Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones raising over $3 million each—dwarfing top Republican Raymond Riehle's $108,000—while six GOP contenders risk vote fragmentation in the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and Sabato underscore incumbency strength and endorsements from Gov. Newsom (Thompson) and Our Revolution (Jones). Challenges could arise from Republican consolidation sending a unified opponent or a Democratic scandal before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$625 ปริมาณ
91%
Republican Party
$302 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party to win California's 4th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index following Proposition 50 redistricting in November 2025, which bolstered its Democratic lean (Kamala Harris won 55.8% in 2024). Recent mid-April FEC filings show Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones raising over $3 million each—dwarfing top Republican Raymond Riehle's $108,000—while six GOP contenders risk vote fragmentation in the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and Sabato underscore incumbency strength and endorsements from Gov. Newsom (Thompson) and Our Revolution (Jones). Challenges could arise from Republican consolidation sending a unified opponent or a Democratic scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$927วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party to win California's 4th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index following Proposition 50 redistricting in November 2025, which bolstered its Democratic lean (Kamala Harris won 55.8% in 2024). Recent mid-April FEC filings show Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones raising over $3 million each—dwarfing top Republican Raymond Riehle's $108,000—while six GOP contenders risk vote fragmentation in the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and Sabato underscore incumbency strength and endorsements from Gov. Newsom (Thompson) and Our Revolution (Jones). Challenges could arise from Republican consolidation sending a unified opponent or a Democratic scandal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$927วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability for the Democratic Party to win California's 4th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index following Proposition 50 redistricting in November 2025, which bolstered its Democratic lean (Kamala Harris won 55.8% in 2024). Recent mid-April FEC filings show Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones raising over $3 million each—dwarfing top Republican Raymond Riehle's $108,000—while six GOP contenders risk vote fragmentation in the June 2 top-two primary. Solid Democratic ratings from Cook and Sabato underscore incumbency strength and endorsements from Gov. Newsom (Thompson) and Our Revolution (Jones). Challenges could arise from Republican consolidation sending a unified opponent or a Democratic scandal before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย