Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+17 Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. The district delivered 55.8% for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, aligning with Thompson's consistent 66%+ general election margins. Recent fundraising shows Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones dominating with millions raised, while six Republicans split a weak field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary—likely advancing two Democrats. A GOP challenge would require unified Republican turnout, a top-two breakthrough by a strong Republican, and favorable national midterm tailwinds, scenarios at odds with historical safe-seat base rates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 ปริมาณ
92%
Republican Party
$297 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+17 Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. The district delivered 55.8% for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, aligning with Thompson's consistent 66%+ general election margins. Recent fundraising shows Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones dominating with millions raised, while six Republicans split a weak field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary—likely advancing two Democrats. A GOP challenge would require unified Republican turnout, a top-two breakthrough by a strong Republican, and favorable national midterm tailwinds, scenarios at odds with historical safe-seat base rates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$297วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+17 Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. The district delivered 55.8% for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, aligning with Thompson's consistent 66%+ general election margins. Recent fundraising shows Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones dominating with millions raised, while six Republicans split a weak field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary—likely advancing two Democrats. A GOP challenge would require unified Republican turnout, a top-two breakthrough by a strong Republican, and favorable national midterm tailwinds, scenarios at odds with historical safe-seat base rates.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$297วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's commanding position in California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+17 Partisan Voter Index, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for a Democratic House election winner on November 3, 2026. The district delivered 55.8% for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, aligning with Thompson's consistent 66%+ general election margins. Recent fundraising shows Thompson and primary challenger Eric Jones dominating with millions raised, while six Republicans split a weak field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary—likely advancing two Democrats. A GOP challenge would require unified Republican turnout, a top-two breakthrough by a strong Republican, and favorable national midterm tailwinds, scenarios at odds with historical safe-seat base rates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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