Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$19,230 ปริมาณ
$19,230 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$19,230 ปริมาณ
$19,230 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,971 ปริมาณ
94%
Republican Party
$13,259 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,230วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,230วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces a Democratic primary on August 11, 2026, against limited opposition while Republican challengers remain marginal. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s urban Milwaukee base and voter patterns. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent incorporates these structural factors alongside the absence of recent developments capable of narrowing the gap. Late shifts could arise from an unexpected primary upset, candidate health developments, or an unusually large national partisan swing, though such outcomes remain low-probability given the district’s established voting trends.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย