Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after advancing from a crowded June 2026 primary and prevailing when his runoff opponent withdrew, positioning him as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index. Strong fundraising, name recognition from his state House tenure, and consolidation of party support have driven the market’s 93 percent implied probability for Tedford over Democratic nominee John Croisant. The open seat, created when incumbent Kevin Hern pursued a Senate bid, has seen limited recent movement, with Croisant’s lower profile and fundraising leaving few pathways to close the gap. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
93%
John Croisant (D)
8%
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
$19,870 Vol.
93%
John Croisant (D)
$15,004 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after advancing from a crowded June 2026 primary and prevailing when his runoff opponent withdrew, positioning him as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index. Strong fundraising, name recognition from his state House tenure, and consolidation of party support have driven the market’s 93 percent implied probability for Tedford over Democratic nominee John Croisant. The open seat, created when incumbent Kevin Hern pursued a Senate bid, has seen limited recent movement, with Croisant’s lower profile and fundraising leaving few pathways to close the gap. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after advancing from a crowded June 2026 primary and prevailing when his runoff opponent withdrew, positioning him as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index. Strong fundraising, name recognition from his state House tenure, and consolidation of party support have driven the market’s 93 percent implied probability for Tedford over Democratic nominee John Croisant. The open seat, created when incumbent Kevin Hern pursued a Senate bid, has seen limited recent movement, with Croisant’s lower profile and fundraising leaving few pathways to close the gap. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after advancing from a crowded June 2026 primary and prevailing when his runoff opponent withdrew, positioning him as the clear general-election frontrunner in a district rated Solid Republican with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index. Strong fundraising, name recognition from his state House tenure, and consolidation of party support have driven the market’s 93 percent implied probability for Tedford over Democratic nominee John Croisant. The open seat, created when incumbent Kevin Hern pursued a Senate bid, has seen limited recent movement, with Croisant’s lower profile and fundraising leaving few pathways to close the gap. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing could still alter the outcome before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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