Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary and advancing when runoff opponent Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew, positioning him against Democrat John Croisant in the November general election. The open seat, vacated by Kevin Hern’s Senate bid, sits in a district with a consistent Republican margin exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, which traders cite as the core driver of the 93 percent implied probability for Tedford. His substantial fundraising lead, local endorsements from mayors and county officials, and business background have reinforced this consensus. Croisant, unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers including limited resources and the district’s voting patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout shifts remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
93%
John Croisant (D)
8%
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
$19,870 Vol.
93%
John Croisant (D)
$15,004 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary and advancing when runoff opponent Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew, positioning him against Democrat John Croisant in the November general election. The open seat, vacated by Kevin Hern’s Senate bid, sits in a district with a consistent Republican margin exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, which traders cite as the core driver of the 93 percent implied probability for Tedford. His substantial fundraising lead, local endorsements from mayors and county officials, and business background have reinforced this consensus. Croisant, unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers including limited resources and the district’s voting patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout shifts remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary and advancing when runoff opponent Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew, positioning him against Democrat John Croisant in the November general election. The open seat, vacated by Kevin Hern’s Senate bid, sits in a district with a consistent Republican margin exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, which traders cite as the core driver of the 93 percent implied probability for Tedford. His substantial fundraising lead, local endorsements from mayors and county officials, and business background have reinforced this consensus. Croisant, unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers including limited resources and the district’s voting patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout shifts remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary and advancing when runoff opponent Jackson Lahmeyer withdrew, positioning him against Democrat John Croisant in the November general election. The open seat, vacated by Kevin Hern’s Senate bid, sits in a district with a consistent Republican margin exceeding 20 points in recent cycles, which traders cite as the core driver of the 93 percent implied probability for Tedford. His substantial fundraising lead, local endorsements from mayors and county officials, and business background have reinforced this consensus. Croisant, unopposed in the Democratic primary, faces structural barriers including limited resources and the district’s voting patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or turnout shifts remain the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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