Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District following a June 2026 primary in which he outperformed a crowded field that included Jackson Lahmeyer. The open seat, previously held by Kevin Hern, sits in a Tulsa-area district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Tedford’s substantial fundraising advantage, state legislative experience, and business background have reinforced trader expectations ahead of the November general election. John Croisant, the Democratic nominee and Tulsa school board member, faces structural headwinds including limited resources and the district’s partisan composition. While late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market pricing reflects the durable Republican advantage in this race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
93%
John Croisant (D)
8%
$34,874 Vol.
$34,874 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mark Tedford (R)
$19,870 Vol.
93%
John Croisant (D)
$15,004 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District following a June 2026 primary in which he outperformed a crowded field that included Jackson Lahmeyer. The open seat, previously held by Kevin Hern, sits in a Tulsa-area district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Tedford’s substantial fundraising advantage, state legislative experience, and business background have reinforced trader expectations ahead of the November general election. John Croisant, the Democratic nominee and Tulsa school board member, faces structural headwinds including limited resources and the district’s partisan composition. While late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market pricing reflects the durable Republican advantage in this race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District following a June 2026 primary in which he outperformed a crowded field that included Jackson Lahmeyer. The open seat, previously held by Kevin Hern, sits in a Tulsa-area district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Tedford’s substantial fundraising advantage, state legislative experience, and business background have reinforced trader expectations ahead of the November general election. John Croisant, the Democratic nominee and Tulsa school board member, faces structural headwinds including limited resources and the district’s partisan composition. While late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market pricing reflects the durable Republican advantage in this race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,874End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District following a June 2026 primary in which he outperformed a crowded field that included Jackson Lahmeyer. The open seat, previously held by Kevin Hern, sits in a Tulsa-area district that has consistently delivered large Republican margins in recent cycles. Tedford’s substantial fundraising advantage, state legislative experience, and business background have reinforced trader expectations ahead of the November general election. John Croisant, the Democratic nominee and Tulsa school board member, faces structural headwinds including limited resources and the district’s partisan composition. While late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter the outcome, the current market pricing reflects the durable Republican advantage in this race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions