Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his 2024 victory that flipped the seat, and a substantial fundraising edge with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $186,000. Buller, a first-time Republican candidate and former USDA official, advanced unopposed after other GOP contenders withdrew, but the race has drawn minimal national attention or outside spending. Traders reflect this through the implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for safe seats. A late-breaking scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make a reversal unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
6%
$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
$11,334 Vol.
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
$11,358 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his 2024 victory that flipped the seat, and a substantial fundraising edge with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $186,000. Buller, a first-time Republican candidate and former USDA official, advanced unopposed after other GOP contenders withdrew, but the race has drawn minimal national attention or outside spending. Traders reflect this through the implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for safe seats. A late-breaking scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make a reversal unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his 2024 victory that flipped the seat, and a substantial fundraising edge with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $186,000. Buller, a first-time Republican candidate and former USDA official, advanced unopposed after other GOP contenders withdrew, but the race has drawn minimal national attention or outside spending. Traders reflect this through the implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for safe seats. A late-breaking scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make a reversal unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 race due to the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters, his 2024 victory that flipped the seat, and a substantial fundraising edge with nearly $1.8 million cash on hand compared to challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $186,000. Buller, a first-time Republican candidate and former USDA official, advanced unopposed after other GOP contenders withdrew, but the race has drawn minimal national attention or outside spending. Traders reflect this through the implied probability, consistent with historical patterns for safe seats. A late-breaking scandal, significant national political shift, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers make a reversal unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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