John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent who flipped New York’s 22nd Congressional District in 2024, holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election against Republican Kailee Buller. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s current partisan balance and Mannion’s strong fundraising edge—nearly $3 million raised compared with Buller’s roughly $267,000. Buller, a former USDA chief of staff endorsed by President Trump, has focused attacks on Mannion’s energy and housing policy record, yet faces limited resources and an uncontested path to the Republican nomination. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Mannion incorporates these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
6%
$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
$11,334 Vol.
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
$11,358 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent who flipped New York’s 22nd Congressional District in 2024, holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election against Republican Kailee Buller. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s current partisan balance and Mannion’s strong fundraising edge—nearly $3 million raised compared with Buller’s roughly $267,000. Buller, a former USDA chief of staff endorsed by President Trump, has focused attacks on Mannion’s energy and housing policy record, yet faces limited resources and an uncontested path to the Republican nomination. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Mannion incorporates these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent who flipped New York’s 22nd Congressional District in 2024, holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election against Republican Kailee Buller. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s current partisan balance and Mannion’s strong fundraising edge—nearly $3 million raised compared with Buller’s roughly $267,000. Buller, a former USDA chief of staff endorsed by President Trump, has focused attacks on Mannion’s energy and housing policy record, yet faces limited resources and an uncontested path to the Republican nomination. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Mannion incorporates these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...John Mannion, the Democratic incumbent who flipped New York’s 22nd Congressional District in 2024, holds a commanding position in the November 2026 general election against Republican Kailee Buller. Expert ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s current partisan balance and Mannion’s strong fundraising edge—nearly $3 million raised compared with Buller’s roughly $267,000. Buller, a former USDA chief of staff endorsed by President Trump, has focused attacks on Mannion’s energy and housing policy record, yet faces limited resources and an uncontested path to the Republican nomination. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for Mannion incorporates these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan swing remain the primary scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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