John Mannion’s strong position as the heavy favorite in New York’s 22nd Congressional District reflects the seat’s Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters, his status as incumbent since 2025, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.9 million raised compared with challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, leaving limited early momentum for the Republican side despite endorsements including from President Trump. Buller, a former USDA official and Auburn native, has focused attacks on energy costs and affordability, yet these have not narrowed the gap in a district that includes Syracuse and Utica. Traders see few realistic paths for an upset absent major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, sharp national swing, or unexpected polling movement before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
6%
$22,693 Vol.
$22,693 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
John Mannion (D)
$11,334 Vol.
94%
Kailee Buller (R)
$11,358 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Mannion’s strong position as the heavy favorite in New York’s 22nd Congressional District reflects the seat’s Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters, his status as incumbent since 2025, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.9 million raised compared with challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, leaving limited early momentum for the Republican side despite endorsements including from President Trump. Buller, a former USDA official and Auburn native, has focused attacks on energy costs and affordability, yet these have not narrowed the gap in a district that includes Syracuse and Utica. Traders see few realistic paths for an upset absent major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, sharp national swing, or unexpected polling movement before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Mannion’s strong position as the heavy favorite in New York’s 22nd Congressional District reflects the seat’s Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters, his status as incumbent since 2025, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.9 million raised compared with challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, leaving limited early momentum for the Republican side despite endorsements including from President Trump. Buller, a former USDA official and Auburn native, has focused attacks on energy costs and affordability, yet these have not narrowed the gap in a district that includes Syracuse and Utica. Traders see few realistic paths for an upset absent major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, sharp national swing, or unexpected polling movement before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,693End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...John Mannion’s strong position as the heavy favorite in New York’s 22nd Congressional District reflects the seat’s Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters, his status as incumbent since 2025, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2.9 million raised compared with challenger Kailee Buller’s roughly $267,000. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, leaving limited early momentum for the Republican side despite endorsements including from President Trump. Buller, a former USDA official and Auburn native, has focused attacks on energy costs and affordability, yet these have not narrowed the gap in a district that includes Syracuse and Utica. Traders see few realistic paths for an upset absent major late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal, sharp national swing, or unexpected polling movement before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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