Betty McCollum holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin exceeding 35 points. As the incumbent since 2001, McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.8% in the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom, an engineer and first-time candidate, won his primary with 72.6%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum’s prior wide margins and the district’s composition covering much of St. Paul and surrounding Ramsey County areas. Wikstrom’s limited fundraising and focus on state-level issues have not altered the structural outlook. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents. A late national wave, major scandal, or health event could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Betty McCollum (D)
96%
Paul Wikstrom (R)
3%
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Betty McCollum (D)
$4,052 Vol.
96%
Paul Wikstrom (R)
$20,235 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Betty McCollum holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin exceeding 35 points. As the incumbent since 2001, McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.8% in the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom, an engineer and first-time candidate, won his primary with 72.6%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum’s prior wide margins and the district’s composition covering much of St. Paul and surrounding Ramsey County areas. Wikstrom’s limited fundraising and focus on state-level issues have not altered the structural outlook. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents. A late national wave, major scandal, or health event could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Betty McCollum holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin exceeding 35 points. As the incumbent since 2001, McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.8% in the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom, an engineer and first-time candidate, won his primary with 72.6%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum’s prior wide margins and the district’s composition covering much of St. Paul and surrounding Ramsey County areas. Wikstrom’s limited fundraising and focus on state-level issues have not altered the structural outlook. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents. A late national wave, major scandal, or health event could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Betty McCollum holds a commanding lead in Minnesota’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18 and Kamala Harris’s 2024 margin exceeding 35 points. As the incumbent since 2001, McCollum secured her party’s nomination with 85.8% in the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Paul Wikstrom, an engineer and first-time candidate, won his primary with 72.6%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, consistent with McCollum’s prior wide margins and the district’s composition covering much of St. Paul and surrounding Ramsey County areas. Wikstrom’s limited fundraising and focus on state-level issues have not altered the structural outlook. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for safe incumbents. A late national wave, major scandal, or health event could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain improbable before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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