Betty McCollum, the Democratic incumbent since 2001, holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 4th congressional district due to the seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris's 12.5-point 2024 margin. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. McCollum easily secured renomination in the August 11 primary, while Republican Paul Wikstrom emerged from his primary as the nominee. The absence of recent polling shifts, major campaign events, or district-specific developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's position. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific issue could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Betty McCollum (D)
95%
Paul Wikstrom (R)
4%
$24,286 Vol.
$24,286 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Betty McCollum (D)
$4,052 Vol.
95%
Paul Wikstrom (R)
$20,235 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Betty McCollum, the Democratic incumbent since 2001, holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 4th congressional district due to the seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris's 12.5-point 2024 margin. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. McCollum easily secured renomination in the August 11 primary, while Republican Paul Wikstrom emerged from his primary as the nominee. The absence of recent polling shifts, major campaign events, or district-specific developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's position. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific issue could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Betty McCollum, the Democratic incumbent since 2001, holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 4th congressional district due to the seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris's 12.5-point 2024 margin. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. McCollum easily secured renomination in the August 11 primary, while Republican Paul Wikstrom emerged from his primary as the nominee. The absence of recent polling shifts, major campaign events, or district-specific developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's position. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific issue could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,286End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Betty McCollum, the Democratic incumbent since 2001, holds a commanding lead in Minnesota's 4th congressional district due to the seat's consistent partisan lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kamala Harris's 12.5-point 2024 margin. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. McCollum easily secured renomination in the August 11 primary, while Republican Paul Wikstrom emerged from his primary as the nominee. The absence of recent polling shifts, major campaign events, or district-specific developments reinforces trader consensus around the incumbent's position. A late national political realignment or unforeseen candidate-specific issue could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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