Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent representing Minnesota’s Third District, holds a commanding lead in the November 3, 2026 general election. The western Twin Cities suburbs lean Democratic, a tilt reinforced by Morrison’s 2024 victory and consistent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. She advanced unopposed through the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a low-turnout contest against a single opponent. Fundraising advantages, incumbency, and the district’s voter composition have shaped trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national performance could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-03 House Election Winner
MN-03 House Election Winner
$25,206 Vol.
$25,206 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kelly Morrison (D)
95%
Tyler Bass (R)
2%
$25,206 Vol.
$25,206 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kelly Morrison (D)
$12,428 Vol.
95%
Tyler Bass (R)
$12,779 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent representing Minnesota’s Third District, holds a commanding lead in the November 3, 2026 general election. The western Twin Cities suburbs lean Democratic, a tilt reinforced by Morrison’s 2024 victory and consistent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. She advanced unopposed through the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a low-turnout contest against a single opponent. Fundraising advantages, incumbency, and the district’s voter composition have shaped trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national performance could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,206End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent representing Minnesota’s Third District, holds a commanding lead in the November 3, 2026 general election. The western Twin Cities suburbs lean Democratic, a tilt reinforced by Morrison’s 2024 victory and consistent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. She advanced unopposed through the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a low-turnout contest against a single opponent. Fundraising advantages, incumbency, and the district’s voter composition have shaped trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national performance could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,206End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent representing Minnesota’s Third District, holds a commanding lead in the November 3, 2026 general election. The western Twin Cities suburbs lean Democratic, a tilt reinforced by Morrison’s 2024 victory and consistent nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe Democratic. She advanced unopposed through the August 11 primary, while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a low-turnout contest against a single opponent. Fundraising advantages, incumbency, and the district’s voter composition have shaped trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican national performance could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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