Sarah Elfreth holds a commanding lead in the Maryland 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic performance, including an 11.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, combined with her status as the sitting representative who secured over 74 percent in the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and Berney Flowers' modest primary showing and fundraising. Traders assign Elfreth a 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-03 House Election Winner
MD-03 House Election Winner
$46,104 Vol.
$46,104 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sarah Elfreth (D)
96%
Berney Flowers (R)
6%
$46,104 Vol.
$46,104 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Sarah Elfreth (D)
$20,975 Vol.
96%
Berney Flowers (R)
$25,130 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth holds a commanding lead in the Maryland 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic performance, including an 11.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, combined with her status as the sitting representative who secured over 74 percent in the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and Berney Flowers' modest primary showing and fundraising. Traders assign Elfreth a 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$46,104End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth holds a commanding lead in the Maryland 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic performance, including an 11.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, combined with her status as the sitting representative who secured over 74 percent in the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and Berney Flowers' modest primary showing and fundraising. Traders assign Elfreth a 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,104End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sarah Elfreth holds a commanding lead in the Maryland 3rd congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic performance, including an 11.5-point margin for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2024, combined with her status as the sitting representative who secured over 74 percent in the June 2026 Democratic primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and Berney Flowers' modest primary showing and fundraising. Traders assign Elfreth a 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical voting patterns and the absence of major recent developments that would shift the balance. A late scandal, significant health event, or unexpected national political realignment could still alter outcomes before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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