Kweisi Mfume’s commanding position in the Maryland 7th congressional district stems from the seat’s deep Democratic tilt, encompassing most of Baltimore and surrounding areas with a partisan lean exceeding 30 points, combined with his status as a longtime incumbent who easily secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary. Mfume defeated a city council challenger by roughly 46 points and has posted consistent general-election margins above 60 points in recent cycles, including an 80-17 outcome against Republican Scott Collier in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that views a Republican upset as structurally improbable. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-07 House Election Winner
MD-07 House Election Winner
$24,398 Vol.
$24,398 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kweisi Mfume (D)
96%
Scott Collier (R)
3%
$24,398 Vol.
$24,398 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Kweisi Mfume (D)
$15,273 Vol.
96%
Scott Collier (R)
$9,125 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kweisi Mfume’s commanding position in the Maryland 7th congressional district stems from the seat’s deep Democratic tilt, encompassing most of Baltimore and surrounding areas with a partisan lean exceeding 30 points, combined with his status as a longtime incumbent who easily secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary. Mfume defeated a city council challenger by roughly 46 points and has posted consistent general-election margins above 60 points in recent cycles, including an 80-17 outcome against Republican Scott Collier in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that views a Republican upset as structurally improbable. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,398End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kweisi Mfume’s commanding position in the Maryland 7th congressional district stems from the seat’s deep Democratic tilt, encompassing most of Baltimore and surrounding areas with a partisan lean exceeding 30 points, combined with his status as a longtime incumbent who easily secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary. Mfume defeated a city council challenger by roughly 46 points and has posted consistent general-election margins above 60 points in recent cycles, including an 80-17 outcome against Republican Scott Collier in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that views a Republican upset as structurally improbable. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,398End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kweisi Mfume’s commanding position in the Maryland 7th congressional district stems from the seat’s deep Democratic tilt, encompassing most of Baltimore and surrounding areas with a partisan lean exceeding 30 points, combined with his status as a longtime incumbent who easily secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary. Mfume defeated a city council challenger by roughly 46 points and has posted consistent general-election margins above 60 points in recent cycles, including an 80-17 outcome against Republican Scott Collier in 2024. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that views a Republican upset as structurally improbable. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a major late scandal, health-related withdrawal by the incumbent, or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established voting patterns ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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