Glenn Ivey, the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, holds overwhelming trader consensus in Maryland's 4th congressional district due to the area's consistent partisan alignment, with recent presidential results showing double-digit Democratic margins and Ivey's own 2024 general election victory exceeding 77 points. He secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Limited recent polling and fundraising data reinforce the gap, as do the district's demographics in Prince George's County suburbs. Scenarios that could shift the race remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$47,101 Vol.
$47,101 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
George McDermott (R)
<1%
$47,101 Vol.
$47,101 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
$21,397 Vol.
97%
George McDermott (R)
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Glenn Ivey, the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, holds overwhelming trader consensus in Maryland's 4th congressional district due to the area's consistent partisan alignment, with recent presidential results showing double-digit Democratic margins and Ivey's own 2024 general election victory exceeding 77 points. He secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Limited recent polling and fundraising data reinforce the gap, as do the district's demographics in Prince George's County suburbs. Scenarios that could shift the race remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,101End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Glenn Ivey, the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, holds overwhelming trader consensus in Maryland's 4th congressional district due to the area's consistent partisan alignment, with recent presidential results showing double-digit Democratic margins and Ivey's own 2024 general election victory exceeding 77 points. He secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Limited recent polling and fundraising data reinforce the gap, as do the district's demographics in Prince George's County suburbs. Scenarios that could shift the race remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,101End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Glenn Ivey, the Democratic incumbent seeking a third term, holds overwhelming trader consensus in Maryland's 4th congressional district due to the area's consistent partisan alignment, with recent presidential results showing double-digit Democratic margins and Ivey's own 2024 general election victory exceeding 77 points. He secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Limited recent polling and fundraising data reinforce the gap, as do the district's demographics in Prince George's County suburbs. Scenarios that could shift the race remain narrow and would likely require an unforeseen late development such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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