Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote against multiple challengers, positioning him for a general election matchup against Republican George McDermott in Maryland's 4th Congressional District. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results where the party captured over 88 percent of the vote, combined with Ivey's established fundraising and institutional support, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. While a late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, the district's partisan composition and Ivey's primary performance create substantial structural barriers to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$47,102 Vol.
$47,102 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
George McDermott (R)
<1%
$47,102 Vol.
$47,102 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
$21,397 Vol.
97%
George McDermott (R)
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote against multiple challengers, positioning him for a general election matchup against Republican George McDermott in Maryland's 4th Congressional District. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results where the party captured over 88 percent of the vote, combined with Ivey's established fundraising and institutional support, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. While a late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, the district's partisan composition and Ivey's primary performance create substantial structural barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,102End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote against multiple challengers, positioning him for a general election matchup against Republican George McDermott in Maryland's 4th Congressional District. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results where the party captured over 88 percent of the vote, combined with Ivey's established fundraising and institutional support, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. While a late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, the district's partisan composition and Ivey's primary performance create substantial structural barriers to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,102End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with nearly 80 percent of the primary vote against multiple challengers, positioning him for a general election matchup against Republican George McDermott in Maryland's 4th Congressional District. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in prior results where the party captured over 88 percent of the vote, combined with Ivey's established fundraising and institutional support, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. While a late scandal, health event, or unanticipated national shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, the district's partisan composition and Ivey's primary performance create substantial structural barriers to an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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