Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 6th congressional district toward a Democratic lean by incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and suburban precincts that have favored the party in recent cycles. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with strong labor and health-care endorsements, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, and available polling shows Pan holding a modest edge. Trader consensus at 96% for a Democratic outcome reflects the district's partisan composition and limited path for Republican recovery, though a major national shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking controversy could still alter the result before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$50,822 Vol.
$50,822 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$50,822 Vol.
$50,822 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$26,032 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$24,791 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 6th congressional district toward a Democratic lean by incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and suburban precincts that have favored the party in recent cycles. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with strong labor and health-care endorsements, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, and available polling shows Pan holding a modest edge. Trader consensus at 96% for a Democratic outcome reflects the district's partisan composition and limited path for Republican recovery, though a major national shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking controversy could still alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,822End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 6th congressional district toward a Democratic lean by incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and suburban precincts that have favored the party in recent cycles. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with strong labor and health-care endorsements, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, and available polling shows Pan holding a modest edge. Trader consensus at 96% for a Democratic outcome reflects the district's partisan composition and limited path for Republican recovery, though a major national shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking controversy could still alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,822End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 6th congressional district toward a Democratic lean by incorporating more Sacramento-area voters and suburban precincts that have favored the party in recent cycles. In the June 2026 top-two primary, independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator with strong labor and health-care endorsements, setting up a November 3 general election matchup. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or likely Democratic, and available polling shows Pan holding a modest edge. Trader consensus at 96% for a Democratic outcome reflects the district's partisan composition and limited path for Republican recovery, though a major national shift, unusually low Democratic turnout, or late-breaking controversy could still alter the result before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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