Republican incumbent Tom McClintock's strong primary performance on June 2, 2026, where he secured over 61 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in McClintock's consistent prior victories exceeding 60 percent, combined with limited Democratic opposition and a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, underpins the high implied probability for the GOP. Broader midterm dynamics and fundraising patterns have not shifted the race into competitive territory, keeping Democratic chances low ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-05 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
86%
Parti démocrate
13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$4,353 Vol.
86%
Parti démocrate
$2,033 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom McClintock's strong primary performance on June 2, 2026, where he secured over 61 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in McClintock's consistent prior victories exceeding 60 percent, combined with limited Democratic opposition and a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, underpins the high implied probability for the GOP. Broader midterm dynamics and fundraising patterns have not shifted the race into competitive territory, keeping Democratic chances low ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,385Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Tom McClintock's strong primary performance on June 2, 2026, where he secured over 61 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in McClintock's consistent prior victories exceeding 60 percent, combined with limited Democratic opposition and a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, underpins the high implied probability for the GOP. Broader midterm dynamics and fundraising patterns have not shifted the race into competitive territory, keeping Democratic chances low ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,385Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Tom McClintock's strong primary performance on June 2, 2026, where he secured over 61 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democrat Michael Masuda, has reinforced trader expectations for the November general election. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in McClintock's consistent prior victories exceeding 60 percent, combined with limited Democratic opposition and a Solid Republican rating from forecasters, underpins the high implied probability for the GOP. Broader midterm dynamics and fundraising patterns have not shifted the race into competitive territory, keeping Democratic chances low ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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