Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District remains a closely contested swing seat in the Lehigh Valley, where Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie secured a narrow victory in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+1 partisan voting index, historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, and targeted investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The May 19 Democratic primary, featuring multiple candidates including Bob Brooks and Lamont McClure, has drawn national attention as Democrats seek to build a strong challenger. Recent primary polling and endorsements highlight internal party debates over messaging in this battleground, while the Republican side features an unopposed incumbent. These dynamics position the race as one of several pivotal contests that could influence House control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-07 House Election Winner
PA-07 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
50%
Republican Party
46%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,585 Vol.
50%
Republican Party
$359 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District remains a closely contested swing seat in the Lehigh Valley, where Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie secured a narrow victory in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+1 partisan voting index, historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, and targeted investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The May 19 Democratic primary, featuring multiple candidates including Bob Brooks and Lamont McClure, has drawn national attention as Democrats seek to build a strong challenger. Recent primary polling and endorsements highlight internal party debates over messaging in this battleground, while the Republican side features an unopposed incumbent. These dynamics position the race as one of several pivotal contests that could influence House control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$3,944End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District remains a closely contested swing seat in the Lehigh Valley, where Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie secured a narrow victory in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+1 partisan voting index, historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, and targeted investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The May 19 Democratic primary, featuring multiple candidates including Bob Brooks and Lamont McClure, has drawn national attention as Democrats seek to build a strong challenger. Recent primary polling and endorsements highlight internal party debates over messaging in this battleground, while the Republican side features an unopposed incumbent. These dynamics position the race as one of several pivotal contests that could influence House control.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$3,944End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District remains a closely contested swing seat in the Lehigh Valley, where Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie secured a narrow victory in 2024. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 70.5% implied probability of capturing the seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+1 partisan voting index, historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, and targeted investment by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The May 19 Democratic primary, featuring multiple candidates including Bob Brooks and Lamont McClure, has drawn national attention as Democrats seek to build a strong challenger. Recent primary polling and endorsements highlight internal party debates over messaging in this battleground, while the Republican side features an unopposed incumbent. These dynamics position the race as one of several pivotal contests that could influence House control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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