Bob Brooks holds an 86% implied probability in this Pennsylvania 7th District contest primarily due to recent polling showing him ahead of incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie by margins around 5 points in the Lehigh Valley battleground. Brooks, a former Bethlehem firefighter and union president who won the Democratic primary decisively in May, benefits from the district’s narrow partisan balance and voter concerns over affordability and taxes. Mackenzie, who flipped the seat in 2024, campaigns on his record of tax relief and bipartisan legislation, yet faces a race rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. With the November 3 general election three weeks away, trader consensus reflects the challenger’s polling edge and the seat’s status as a key factor in House control.