Rebecca Bennett holds a strong lead in the NJ-07 House race according to trader consensus, driven primarily by incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr.’s extended absence from Congress beginning in early March 2026 due to health issues, which limited his visibility and fueled criticism during the campaign. Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who secured the Democratic nomination in June, has benefited from recent union shifts including the firefighters’ association endorsement and AFSCME support, alongside polling showing her with a narrow edge among likely voters and more favorable personal ratings. The swing district’s history of competitive outcomes, combined with national conditions affecting Republican incumbents, has reinforced the implied probability gap, though Kean continues to receive outside spending and the race remains subject to shifts in turnout and late-cycle dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,153 Vol.
$22,153 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Bennett (D)
84%
Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
18%
$22,153 Vol.
$22,153 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Bennett (D)
$6,544 Vol.
84%
Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
$15,610 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rebecca Bennett holds a strong lead in the NJ-07 House race according to trader consensus, driven primarily by incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr.’s extended absence from Congress beginning in early March 2026 due to health issues, which limited his visibility and fueled criticism during the campaign. Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who secured the Democratic nomination in June, has benefited from recent union shifts including the firefighters’ association endorsement and AFSCME support, alongside polling showing her with a narrow edge among likely voters and more favorable personal ratings. The swing district’s history of competitive outcomes, combined with national conditions affecting Republican incumbents, has reinforced the implied probability gap, though Kean continues to receive outside spending and the race remains subject to shifts in turnout and late-cycle dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$22,153End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rebecca Bennett holds a strong lead in the NJ-07 House race according to trader consensus, driven primarily by incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr.’s extended absence from Congress beginning in early March 2026 due to health issues, which limited his visibility and fueled criticism during the campaign. Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who secured the Democratic nomination in June, has benefited from recent union shifts including the firefighters’ association endorsement and AFSCME support, alongside polling showing her with a narrow edge among likely voters and more favorable personal ratings. The swing district’s history of competitive outcomes, combined with national conditions affecting Republican incumbents, has reinforced the implied probability gap, though Kean continues to receive outside spending and the race remains subject to shifts in turnout and late-cycle dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,153End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Rebecca Bennett holds a strong lead in the NJ-07 House race according to trader consensus, driven primarily by incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr.’s extended absence from Congress beginning in early March 2026 due to health issues, which limited his visibility and fueled criticism during the campaign. Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who secured the Democratic nomination in June, has benefited from recent union shifts including the firefighters’ association endorsement and AFSCME support, alongside polling showing her with a narrow edge among likely voters and more favorable personal ratings. The swing district’s history of competitive outcomes, combined with national conditions affecting Republican incumbents, has reinforced the implied probability gap, though Kean continues to receive outside spending and the race remains subject to shifts in turnout and late-cycle dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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