Incumbent Republican Tom Kean Jr. faces significant headwinds in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district after a more than four-month absence from Congress earlier in 2026 due to a medical issue that included a depression diagnosis and caused him to miss over 100 votes. Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot and Air National Guard officer, secured her nomination in a competitive primary and has gained recent labor support, including from AFSCME and Iron Workers Local 11. The sole debate on September 27 produced no decisive shifts, though polling from September showed Bennett holding a narrow lead in the swing district that Trump carried by a slim margin in 2024. Trader consensus on Bennett’s strong position incorporates these factors along with ongoing questions about Kean’s recovery and campaign momentum heading into November.