Rebecca Bennett holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, driven primarily by incumbent Thomas Kean Jr.’s prolonged absence from Congress since early March due to health issues that limited his visibility and constituent engagement in a swing district. Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot who secured the Democratic nomination in June, has capitalized on substantial fundraising advantages, labor endorsements including recent flips from firefighters and AFSCME, and the district’s narrow partisan balance. A late-September debate offered no decisive shifts, while polling shows a tighter contest; traders appear to weigh Kean’s extended recovery and reduced campaign presence as significant barriers to recovery before November.