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Politics·Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner

Julia Letlow 74%

John Fleming 15.0%

Bill Cassidy 9%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$63,588 Vol.

Julia Letlow 74%

John Fleming 15.0%

Bill Cassidy 9%

Julie Emerson <1%

Polymarket

$63,588 Vol.

Julia Letlow

$6,892 Vol.

74%

John Fleming

$30,332 Vol.

15%

Bill Cassidy

$26,363 Vol.

9%

Julie Emerson

$0 Vol.

<1%

Blake Miguez

$0 Vol.

<1%

Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt

$0 Vol.

<1%

Randall Arrington

$0 Vol.

<1%

Eric Skrmetta

$0 Vol.

<1%

Chris Holder

$0 Vol.

<1%

Xan John

$0 Vol.

<1%

Kathy Seiden

$0 Vol.

<1%

Tracy Dendy

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 74.5% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's high-profile endorsement on March 21 praising her America First record and Louisiana delivery. This recent catalyst aligns with her campaign's March 17 poll showing a lead that expands significantly among informed voters, boosting momentum in the majority-vote primary where a candidate needs over 50% to avoid a runoff. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy lags at 8.5% amid vulnerability from his 2021 vote to convict Trump on Jan. 6 charges, while State Treasurer John Fleming trails at 14.2% despite earlier polls showing him competitive. Recent surveys remain mixed, with market odds diverging from polling averages.

Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 74.5% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's high-profile endorsement on March 21 praising her America First record and Louisiana delivery. This recent catalyst aligns with her campaign's March 17 poll showing a lead that expands significantly among informed voters, boosting momentum in the majority-vote primary where a candidate needs over 50% to avoid a runoff. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy lags at 8.5% amid vulnerability from his 2021 vote to convict Trump on Jan. 6 charges, while State Treasurer John Fleming trails at 14.2% despite earlier polls showing him competitive. Recent surveys remain mixed, with market odds diverging from polling averages.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 74.5% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's high-profile endorsement on March 21 praising her America First record and Louisiana delivery. This recent catalyst aligns with her campaign's March 17 poll showing a lead that expands significantly among informed voters, boosting momentum in the majority-vote primary where a candidate needs over 50% to avoid a runoff. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy lags at 8.5% amid vulnerability from his 2021 vote to convict Trump on Jan. 6 charges, while State Treasurer John Fleming trails at 14.2% despite earlier polls showing him competitive. Recent surveys remain mixed, with market odds diverging from polling averages.

Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 74.5% implied probability to win Louisiana's Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 16, driven by President Trump's high-profile endorsement on March 21 praising her America First record and Louisiana delivery. This recent catalyst aligns with her campaign's March 17 poll showing a lead that expands significantly among informed voters, boosting momentum in the majority-vote primary where a candidate needs over 50% to avoid a runoff. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy lags at 8.5% amid vulnerability from his 2021 vote to convict Trump on Jan. 6 charges, while State Treasurer John Fleming trails at 14.2% despite earlier polls showing him competitive. Recent surveys remain mixed, with market odds diverging from polling averages.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Julia Letlow" at 74%, followed by "John Fleming" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $63.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 22, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Julia Letlow" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Fleming" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.