Trader consensus gives Republicans an 89.5% implied probability of retaining Indiana's 9th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's R+15 partisan lean and incumbent Erin Houchin's dominant 64.5% victory in 2024 against Timothy Peck, who is running again in a crowded four-way Democratic primary on May 5. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican as of March 12, with Houchin unopposed in the GOP primary and backed by strong fundraising ($1.1 million cash on hand end-2025). A Bloomington candidate forum last week highlighted policy differences but showed no momentum shift, underscoring historical barriers to Democratic wins since 1998 absent a major scandal or national midterm wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIN-09 House Election Winner
IN-09 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans an 89.5% implied probability of retaining Indiana's 9th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's R+15 partisan lean and incumbent Erin Houchin's dominant 64.5% victory in 2024 against Timothy Peck, who is running again in a crowded four-way Democratic primary on May 5. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican as of March 12, with Houchin unopposed in the GOP primary and backed by strong fundraising ($1.1 million cash on hand end-2025). A Bloomington candidate forum last week highlighted policy differences but showed no momentum shift, underscoring historical barriers to Democratic wins since 1998 absent a major scandal or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives Republicans an 89.5% implied probability of retaining Indiana's 9th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's R+15 partisan lean and incumbent Erin Houchin's dominant 64.5% victory in 2024 against Timothy Peck, who is running again in a crowded four-way Democratic primary on May 5. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican as of March 12, with Houchin unopposed in the GOP primary and backed by strong fundraising ($1.1 million cash on hand end-2025). A Bloomington candidate forum last week highlighted policy differences but showed no momentum shift, underscoring historical barriers to Democratic wins since 1998 absent a major scandal or national midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Republicans an 89.5% implied probability of retaining Indiana's 9th Congressional District, reflecting the seat's R+15 partisan lean and incumbent Erin Houchin's dominant 64.5% victory in 2024 against Timothy Peck, who is running again in a crowded four-way Democratic primary on May 5. Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican as of March 12, with Houchin unopposed in the GOP primary and backed by strong fundraising ($1.1 million cash on hand end-2025). A Bloomington candidate forum last week highlighted policy differences but showed no momentum shift, underscoring historical barriers to Democratic wins since 1998 absent a major scandal or national midterm wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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