Republican incumbent David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 where Donald Trump won by over 20 points in 2020. Recent August polling shows Kustoff at 60% against Democratic nominee Vanessa Enoch's 28%, reflecting the district's conservative leanings in suburban Memphis and rural West Tennessee. Primaries on August 1 confirmed the nominees, with no major scandals, endorsements, or campaign shifts since to erode his advantage. Traders price Republicans at 92.5% implied probability, aligning with historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe districts. Late-breaking events like a Kustoff health issue, legal trouble, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this, though such scenarios remain remote ahead of the November 5 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTN-08 House Election Winner
TN-08 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$827 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 where Donald Trump won by over 20 points in 2020. Recent August polling shows Kustoff at 60% against Democratic nominee Vanessa Enoch's 28%, reflecting the district's conservative leanings in suburban Memphis and rural West Tennessee. Primaries on August 1 confirmed the nominees, with no major scandals, endorsements, or campaign shifts since to erode his advantage. Traders price Republicans at 92.5% implied probability, aligning with historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe districts. Late-breaking events like a Kustoff health issue, legal trouble, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this, though such scenarios remain remote ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$827End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 where Donald Trump won by over 20 points in 2020. Recent August polling shows Kustoff at 60% against Democratic nominee Vanessa Enoch's 28%, reflecting the district's conservative leanings in suburban Memphis and rural West Tennessee. Primaries on August 1 confirmed the nominees, with no major scandals, endorsements, or campaign shifts since to erode his advantage. Traders price Republicans at 92.5% implied probability, aligning with historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe districts. Late-breaking events like a Kustoff health issue, legal trouble, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this, though such scenarios remain remote ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$827End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in Tennessee's 8th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14 where Donald Trump won by over 20 points in 2020. Recent August polling shows Kustoff at 60% against Democratic nominee Vanessa Enoch's 28%, reflecting the district's conservative leanings in suburban Memphis and rural West Tennessee. Primaries on August 1 confirmed the nominees, with no major scandals, endorsements, or campaign shifts since to erode his advantage. Traders price Republicans at 92.5% implied probability, aligning with historical incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe districts. Late-breaking events like a Kustoff health issue, legal trouble, or unprecedented Democratic turnout surge could challenge this, though such scenarios remain remote ahead of the November 5 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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