Incumbent Republican David Kustoff holds a commanding lead in the TN-08 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean after recent redistricting that produced a Cook Partisan Voter Index around R+10. Kustoff secured his party’s nomination unopposed in the August 2026 primary and carries the advantages of incumbency since 2017, substantial fundraising, and an endorsement from President Trump. Democratic nominee Heidi Kuhn, a former Shelby County court clerk who won her primary in August, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently delivered Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Safe or Solid Republican. Late developments capable of shifting the outcome remain limited but could include an unforeseen scandal, acute health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national Democratic surge capable of narrowing the historical partisan gap.