Incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen commands overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic stronghold (D+29 Cook PVI) in urban Memphis with its majority African American electorate and Cohen's track record of landslides over 70% in multiple cycles. The August primaries concluded without disruption, as Cohen cruised through the Democratic contest while Republican Leo Coleman III, a perennial challenger with weak fundraising and no polling traction, advanced unremarkably. With the November 5 general election approaching, markets price in minimal upset risk barring a late scandal, health issue for Cohen, or extraordinary GOP turnout surge in this safe blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTN-09 House Election Winner
TN-09 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen commands overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic stronghold (D+29 Cook PVI) in urban Memphis with its majority African American electorate and Cohen's track record of landslides over 70% in multiple cycles. The August primaries concluded without disruption, as Cohen cruised through the Democratic contest while Republican Leo Coleman III, a perennial challenger with weak fundraising and no polling traction, advanced unremarkably. With the November 5 general election approaching, markets price in minimal upset risk barring a late scandal, health issue for Cohen, or extraordinary GOP turnout surge in this safe blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen commands overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic stronghold (D+29 Cook PVI) in urban Memphis with its majority African American electorate and Cohen's track record of landslides over 70% in multiple cycles. The August primaries concluded without disruption, as Cohen cruised through the Democratic contest while Republican Leo Coleman III, a perennial challenger with weak fundraising and no polling traction, advanced unremarkably. With the November 5 general election approaching, markets price in minimal upset risk barring a late scandal, health issue for Cohen, or extraordinary GOP turnout surge in this safe blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Steve Cohen commands overwhelming trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 9th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic stronghold (D+29 Cook PVI) in urban Memphis with its majority African American electorate and Cohen's track record of landslides over 70% in multiple cycles. The August primaries concluded without disruption, as Cohen cruised through the Democratic contest while Republican Leo Coleman III, a perennial challenger with weak fundraising and no polling traction, advanced unremarkably. With the November 5 general election approaching, markets price in minimal upset risk barring a late scandal, health issue for Cohen, or extraordinary GOP turnout surge in this safe blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions