**Republican nominee Aaron Flint holds a 60.5% implied probability over Democrat Sam Forstag at 41.0% in the MT-01 House race.** The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke after his 2024 victory by roughly eight points, remains structurally favorable to Republicans in a district that has consistently leaned GOP. Flint secured the nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and over 50% of the vote, consolidating support among party voters. Forstag emerged as the Democratic nominee in the same primary, backed by organized labor and progressive groups, and has matched Flint in early fundraising. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing the district’s voting patterns and midterm dynamics that typically favor the opposition party. Traders appear to price in these fundamentals while acknowledging the open-seat uncertainty and Democratic investments that could narrow the margin. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-breaking developments reported since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
61%
Democratic Party
41%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$3,128 Vol.
61%
Democratic Party
$1,670 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Aaron Flint holds a 60.5% implied probability over Democrat Sam Forstag at 41.0% in the MT-01 House race.**
The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke after his 2024 victory by roughly eight points, remains structurally favorable to Republicans in a district that has consistently leaned GOP. Flint secured the nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and over 50% of the vote, consolidating support among party voters. Forstag emerged as the Democratic nominee in the same primary, backed by organized labor and progressive groups, and has matched Flint in early fundraising.
Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing the district’s voting patterns and midterm dynamics that typically favor the opposition party. Traders appear to price in these fundamentals while acknowledging the open-seat uncertainty and Democratic investments that could narrow the margin. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-breaking developments reported since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$4,798End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican nominee Aaron Flint holds a 60.5% implied probability over Democrat Sam Forstag at 41.0% in the MT-01 House race.**
The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke after his 2024 victory by roughly eight points, remains structurally favorable to Republicans in a district that has consistently leaned GOP. Flint secured the nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and over 50% of the vote, consolidating support among party voters. Forstag emerged as the Democratic nominee in the same primary, backed by organized labor and progressive groups, and has matched Flint in early fundraising.
Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing the district’s voting patterns and midterm dynamics that typically favor the opposition party. Traders appear to price in these fundamentals while acknowledging the open-seat uncertainty and Democratic investments that could narrow the margin. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-breaking developments reported since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$4,798End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican nominee Aaron Flint holds a 60.5% implied probability over Democrat Sam Forstag at 41.0% in the MT-01 House race.** The open seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Ryan Zinke after his 2024 victory by roughly eight points, remains structurally favorable to Republicans in a district that has consistently leaned GOP. Flint secured the nomination in the June 2 primary with Trump’s endorsement and over 50% of the vote, consolidating support among party voters. Forstag emerged as the Democratic nominee in the same primary, backed by organized labor and progressive groups, and has matched Flint in early fundraising. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Lean Republican, citing the district’s voting patterns and midterm dynamics that typically favor the opposition party. Traders appear to price in these fundamentals while acknowledging the open-seat uncertainty and Democratic investments that could narrow the margin. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with limited late-breaking developments reported since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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