Missouri's 1st congressional district, encompassing St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+29 Cook PVI and consistent election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with 59 percent against Cori Bush, while Paul Berry advanced as the Republican nominee. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the outcome. A shift would require an unprecedented event such as a late scandal involving the nominee or major court-ordered changes to district lines before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-01 House Election Winner
MO-01 House Election Winner
$35,144 Vol.
$35,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$35,144 Vol.
$35,144 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,487 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$13,656 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st congressional district, encompassing St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+29 Cook PVI and consistent election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with 59 percent against Cori Bush, while Paul Berry advanced as the Republican nominee. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the outcome. A shift would require an unprecedented event such as a late scandal involving the nominee or major court-ordered changes to district lines before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$35,144End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st congressional district, encompassing St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+29 Cook PVI and consistent election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with 59 percent against Cori Bush, while Paul Berry advanced as the Republican nominee. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the outcome. A shift would require an unprecedented event such as a late scandal involving the nominee or major court-ordered changes to district lines before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,144End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 1st congressional district, encompassing St. Louis and northern St. Louis County, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+29 Cook PVI and consistent election margins exceeding 50 points. Incumbent Wesley Bell secured the Democratic nomination in the August 4, 2026 primary with 59 percent against Cori Bush, while Paul Berry advanced as the Republican nominee. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus pricing aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that would alter the outcome. A shift would require an unprecedented event such as a late scandal involving the nominee or major court-ordered changes to district lines before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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