Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell won his March 2026 primary with more than 80 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters and carrying a strong partisan lean. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum advanced from the opposing primary but faces the same structural barriers that have produced consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, traders assign the Republican Party a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the district's voting history, Ezell's incumbency advantage, and the absence of competitive polling or major developments since the primaries. Only an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent could realistically narrow the outcome before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$23,843 Обс.
$23,843 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
5%
$23,843 Обс.
$23,843 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,505 Обс.
95%
Democratic Party
$14,338 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell won his March 2026 primary with more than 80 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters and carrying a strong partisan lean. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum advanced from the opposing primary but faces the same structural barriers that have produced consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, traders assign the Republican Party a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the district's voting history, Ezell's incumbency advantage, and the absence of competitive polling or major developments since the primaries. Only an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent could realistically narrow the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$23,843Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell won his March 2026 primary with more than 80 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters and carrying a strong partisan lean. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum advanced from the opposing primary but faces the same structural barriers that have produced consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, traders assign the Republican Party a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the district's voting history, Ezell's incumbency advantage, and the absence of competitive polling or major developments since the primaries. Only an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent could realistically narrow the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$23,843Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell won his March 2026 primary with more than 80 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan forecasters and carrying a strong partisan lean. Democrat Jeffrey Hulum advanced from the opposing primary but faces the same structural barriers that have produced consistent Republican margins exceeding 20 points in recent cycles. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, traders assign the Republican Party a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the district's voting history, Ezell's incumbency advantage, and the absence of competitive polling or major developments since the primaries. Only an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent could realistically narrow the outcome before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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