South Dakota’s at-large House district carries a strongly Republican partisan voter index and a consistent record of double-digit GOP margins in recent federal elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the seat is open, yet the Republican primary on June 2 features frontrunner Marty Jackley facing only token opposition, while the Democratic primary was canceled, leaving Nicole Gronli as the nominee. Forecasters rate the general election on November 3 Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for Democrats and the structural advantages of the state’s voter base. The implied probability aligns with this baseline, though an unusually weak Republican nominee or major national shift could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$16,931 Обс.
$16,931 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$16,931 Обс.
$16,931 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,474 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$7,457 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district carries a strongly Republican partisan voter index and a consistent record of double-digit GOP margins in recent federal elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the seat is open, yet the Republican primary on June 2 features frontrunner Marty Jackley facing only token opposition, while the Democratic primary was canceled, leaving Nicole Gronli as the nominee. Forecasters rate the general election on November 3 Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for Democrats and the structural advantages of the state’s voter base. The implied probability aligns with this baseline, though an unusually weak Republican nominee or major national shift could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,931Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota’s at-large House district carries a strongly Republican partisan voter index and a consistent record of double-digit GOP margins in recent federal elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the seat is open, yet the Republican primary on June 2 features frontrunner Marty Jackley facing only token opposition, while the Democratic primary was canceled, leaving Nicole Gronli as the nominee. Forecasters rate the general election on November 3 Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for Democrats and the structural advantages of the state’s voter base. The implied probability aligns with this baseline, though an unusually weak Republican nominee or major national shift could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$16,931Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota’s at-large House district carries a strongly Republican partisan voter index and a consistent record of double-digit GOP margins in recent federal elections. With incumbent Dusty Johnson running for governor instead, the seat is open, yet the Republican primary on June 2 features frontrunner Marty Jackley facing only token opposition, while the Democratic primary was canceled, leaving Nicole Gronli as the nominee. Forecasters rate the general election on November 3 Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited crossover appeal for Democrats and the structural advantages of the state’s voter base. The implied probability aligns with this baseline, though an unusually weak Republican nominee or major national shift could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання