South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a Republican stronghold, with trader consensus implying over 90% odds for a GOP hold in the November general election despite incumbent Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid creating an open seat. Recent Emerson College polling from March 7-9 shows Attorney General Marty Jackley dominating the June 2 Republican primary at 51% among likely voters, strengthened by state Sen. Casey Crabtree's early withdrawal and endorsement, plus President Trump's support and Jackley's $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Democratic primary fields like Nicole Gronli lack comparable resources in a state with R+16 partisan lean and 40+ point GOP historical margins. Challenges would need primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee or late scandals, per Safe Republican ratings from forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$1,722 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a Republican stronghold, with trader consensus implying over 90% odds for a GOP hold in the November general election despite incumbent Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid creating an open seat. Recent Emerson College polling from March 7-9 shows Attorney General Marty Jackley dominating the June 2 Republican primary at 51% among likely voters, strengthened by state Sen. Casey Crabtree's early withdrawal and endorsement, plus President Trump's support and Jackley's $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Democratic primary fields like Nicole Gronli lack comparable resources in a state with R+16 partisan lean and 40+ point GOP historical margins. Challenges would need primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee or late scandals, per Safe Republican ratings from forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,722End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a Republican stronghold, with trader consensus implying over 90% odds for a GOP hold in the November general election despite incumbent Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid creating an open seat. Recent Emerson College polling from March 7-9 shows Attorney General Marty Jackley dominating the June 2 Republican primary at 51% among likely voters, strengthened by state Sen. Casey Crabtree's early withdrawal and endorsement, plus President Trump's support and Jackley's $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Democratic primary fields like Nicole Gronli lack comparable resources in a state with R+16 partisan lean and 40+ point GOP historical margins. Challenges would need primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee or late scandals, per Safe Republican ratings from forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,722End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district remains a Republican stronghold, with trader consensus implying over 90% odds for a GOP hold in the November general election despite incumbent Dusty Johnson's gubernatorial bid creating an open seat. Recent Emerson College polling from March 7-9 shows Attorney General Marty Jackley dominating the June 2 Republican primary at 51% among likely voters, strengthened by state Sen. Casey Crabtree's early withdrawal and endorsement, plus President Trump's support and Jackley's $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage. Democratic primary fields like Nicole Gronli lack comparable resources in a state with R+16 partisan lean and 40+ point GOP historical margins. Challenges would need primary turmoil yielding a weakened nominee or late scandals, per Safe Republican ratings from forecasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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