Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota’s at-large House seat with 79 percent in the June primary, positioning him to succeed retiring incumbent Dusty Johnson in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. The state’s partisan lean, combined with Jackley’s record as attorney general and superior fundraising, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Gronli advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces structural headwinds in a solidly Republican electorate. Ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, including a major scandal or sharp national swing, remain the primary theoretical paths that could narrow the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$32,111 Vol.
$32,111 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
4%
$32,111 Vol.
$32,111 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Marty Jackley (R)
$24,423 Vol.
95%
Nikki Gronli (D)
$7,688 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota’s at-large House seat with 79 percent in the June primary, positioning him to succeed retiring incumbent Dusty Johnson in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. The state’s partisan lean, combined with Jackley’s record as attorney general and superior fundraising, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Gronli advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces structural headwinds in a solidly Republican electorate. Ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, including a major scandal or sharp national swing, remain the primary theoretical paths that could narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,111End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota’s at-large House seat with 79 percent in the June primary, positioning him to succeed retiring incumbent Dusty Johnson in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. The state’s partisan lean, combined with Jackley’s record as attorney general and superior fundraising, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Gronli advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces structural headwinds in a solidly Republican electorate. Ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, including a major scandal or sharp national swing, remain the primary theoretical paths that could narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,111End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Marty Jackley secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota’s at-large House seat with 79 percent in the June primary, positioning him to succeed retiring incumbent Dusty Johnson in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2008. The state’s partisan lean, combined with Jackley’s record as attorney general and superior fundraising, has produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 95 percent implied probability. Gronli advanced unopposed on the Democratic side but faces structural headwinds in a solidly Republican electorate. Ratings from outlets such as the Cook Political Report classify the contest as safe Republican. Late-breaking developments, including a major scandal or sharp national swing, remain the primary theoretical paths that could narrow the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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