Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district, encompassing the southwestern Philadelphia suburbs and Delaware County, features a consistent Democratic lean that shapes current trader consensus. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon, who secured reelection with over 65 percent in 2024, faces only nominal opposition from Republican Nicholas Manganaro in the May 19 primary. Major forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. This positioning reflects the district’s voting patterns, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of recent developments that might introduce uncertainty. While a significant national shift or late-cycle event could theoretically alter the outcome, the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee remain the dominant factor reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-05 House Election Winner
PA-05 House Election Winner
$21,557 Vol.
$21,557 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$21,557 Vol.
$21,557 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,275 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$12,282 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district, encompassing the southwestern Philadelphia suburbs and Delaware County, features a consistent Democratic lean that shapes current trader consensus. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon, who secured reelection with over 65 percent in 2024, faces only nominal opposition from Republican Nicholas Manganaro in the May 19 primary. Major forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. This positioning reflects the district’s voting patterns, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of recent developments that might introduce uncertainty. While a significant national shift or late-cycle event could theoretically alter the outcome, the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee remain the dominant factor reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$21,557End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district, encompassing the southwestern Philadelphia suburbs and Delaware County, features a consistent Democratic lean that shapes current trader consensus. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon, who secured reelection with over 65 percent in 2024, faces only nominal opposition from Republican Nicholas Manganaro in the May 19 primary. Major forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. This positioning reflects the district’s voting patterns, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of recent developments that might introduce uncertainty. While a significant national shift or late-cycle event could theoretically alter the outcome, the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee remain the dominant factor reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,557End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Pennsylvania’s 5th congressional district, encompassing the southwestern Philadelphia suburbs and Delaware County, features a consistent Democratic lean that shapes current trader consensus. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon, who secured reelection with over 65 percent in 2024, faces only nominal opposition from Republican Nicholas Manganaro in the May 19 primary. Major forecasters rate the seat as solidly Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. This positioning reflects the district’s voting patterns, limited Republican infrastructure, and absence of recent developments that might introduce uncertainty. While a significant national shift or late-cycle event could theoretically alter the outcome, the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee remain the dominant factor reflected in market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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