Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting and his strong performance in the June top-two primary. Min advanced comfortably with roughly 45% of the primary vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux secured second place at 25%. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns including an 11-point margin for Kamala Harris in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
$17,726 Vol.
$17,726 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dave Min (D)
96%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
5%
$17,726 Vol.
$17,726 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Dave Min (D)
$3,540 Vol.
96%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
$14,187 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting and his strong performance in the June top-two primary. Min advanced comfortably with roughly 45% of the primary vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux secured second place at 25%. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns including an 11-point margin for Kamala Harris in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$17,726End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting and his strong performance in the June top-two primary. Min advanced comfortably with roughly 45% of the primary vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux secured second place at 25%. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns including an 11-point margin for Kamala Harris in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,726End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min holds a commanding position in California's 47th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's solid Democratic lean after recent redistricting and his strong performance in the June top-two primary. Min advanced comfortably with roughly 45% of the primary vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux secured second place at 25%. Forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the district's voting patterns including an 11-point margin for Kamala Harris in 2024. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as major scandals, health issues, or unexpected turnout shifts could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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